 This is a remarkable graph. You might have heard that "EV sales are slumping", "people are starting to avoid EVs", etc. That's not what's happening. What's happening is "Tesla is cratering so hard that it's skewing the aggregate market data." Or, put differently, "Tesla is failing harder than the entire rest of the market is succeeding, combined." 166 comments
  @mhoye People got it out of their system and realize that until battery capacity improves it's not worth the effort and the thousands of dollars it costs to install a decent charger in your garage. @ShredderFeeder Speaking as somebody who did that, the number of thousands of dollars it costs to install a decent charger in your garage is "0.7" and it pays for itself in a few weeks. 1. My garage is on the opposite side of my house from my electrical panel. 2. My electrical panel is full. 3. Installing a car charger would involve upgrading the feed from the street to support the extra 50A circuit. 4. If you found a qualified, licensed electrician to do that job for $700 including the cost of the charger, please give me his name, because he's the cheapest electrician I've ever heard of.  @ShredderFeeder @mhoye Our panel is full too but we previously had a Nissan leaf and the charger that it came with just plugged into a regular plug. It only did slow charging but that worked for us @CosmicTraveler @mhoye I had a friend buy one of those a few years back. I think he took it back after about two weeks and bought a Prius.  @ShredderFeeder @CosmicTraveler @mhoye @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye When I do road trips I do straight through trips. (half of my annual mileage is my summer beach trip, and I usually do it in a single drive with a 10 minute gas break. 530 miles in about 6 hours. Can't do that in an electric. @ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye @ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye You would need maybe two charge stops. So it would take 40 minutes total, 30 additional minutes. Definitely sounds like a dealbreaker to me. @arigesher @ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye and oh boy. Two 20-minute breaks on a 10 hour ride (iso 1x10 minutes) would make it more relaxed and save. The horror! @ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye ok don’t buy one. Or rent your vacation vehicle. Your singular use case represents a tiny fraction of what people do daily with their cars.  @ShredderFeeder @jannem @CosmicTraveler @mhoye I do this every month, and regularly need to round trip Seattle to Portland without time to charge. Between that and not having access to a charger at my house or any other location, and it's a completely unavailable solution for me. That said, I recognize I'm in the vast minority here. Essentially everyone in America should be able to do EVs already even without better infrastructure.  @ShredderFeeder @mhoye Just put on some synthetic fibre socks and skitter around the garage to build up a good static charge. Then, touch the battery. You're welcome.  You may have a 100a supply, though I have to ask what kind of charging you think you might need, a lot of people drive so little that a regular 10a plug can do the job over night. More is nice, obv, but doesn't have to be the only option. @ShredderFeeder @mhoye Unless you drive as lot, (or need to drive a huge car) you probably only need a 15A 120V circuit to charge your EV. A regular circuit will add about 40 miles to your car overnight, and if you drive less than 40 miles per day on average, you're golden. If that's not sufficient, a 30A 240 V circuit will add more than 100 miles per night, even for a big car. @gpk @ShredderFeeder @mhoye If you're going 240 volts, you might as well go for a 50 amp circuit. (It's the same circuit that newer RVs use.) @mhoye Also - I drive less than 2,500 miles a year. It takes a LONG time to to make up $700 in savings at that rate. ;-) Also - i've worked with computers long enough to not trust any car that is controlled by one. @ShredderFeeder @mhoye if you're really driving so little, you can charge on a 110 outlet. I did for a few months before we got a charger installed. Worked fine for a daily burbs-to-city-and-back commute, and some shopping trips. @ShredderFeeder @mhoye I'd keep you going until you entirely filled my EV FUD bingo card, but I've got better things to do. @ShredderFeeder @dave @mhoye They're fine with it. LOL. Just keep them plugged in with a charge limit of 80% capacity everyday and you're fine. @ShredderFeeder @mhoye If you are driving that little, you are not the problem. You are fine with an ICE. Or an e-bicycle. It is not worth the mining footprint to switch to a huge USian EV with 300 miles range and enough weight to take up two spots on a car ferry. @Brad_Rosenheim @mhoye it's good since I won't be caught dead in any car built after 2014. EV's aren't my hang-up, but internet-connected cars? Not a fucking chance. Those are a hack away from being a mass-casualty-event. (All someone has to do is "Every Tesla Turns Left NOW!") and we're all done for. @ShredderFeeder @Brad_Rosenheim @mhoye I don't even like the computer in my 2010. My only solace is that you have to connect a physical cable *AND* have the key to hack it... (and even then, I have mechanical brakes and a real steering column that's connected to the wheels by more than just a wire.)  @ShredderFeeder @Brad_Rosenheim @mhoye  @ShredderFeeder @mhoye it's fine if you don't want one or it doesn't suit your needs. You can just say that without suggesting EVs are bad for everyone. @webcubus @mhoye I never did, just said they don't provide the cost savings they promise in many ways. I do believe that they are, in many ways, much worse for the environment. We've just replaced drilling for oil with stripmining for lithium, manganese, cobalt, nickel, iron, etc... Every 60kw battery contains about 185kg of these minerals.. And you need to replace them about once every 10-15 years. @mhoye FWIW, I drive an EV every day, haven't installed a home charger, and charge using a standard wall socket (at ~1.4kW). No dramas whatsoever. average EV sales in collapse factoid actualy just statistical error. average EV sales increasing big. Fuckups Georg, who lives on a jet and eats over 10,000 ketamines each day, is an outlier adn should not have been counted  @ozdreaming @glyph @mhoye he owns a company that is mentioned in the original post in this chain. @jason @ozdreaming @glyph @mhoye @chrisjrn 😂 how have I been missing this for so long? #FuckupsGeorg makes perfect sense now @ozdreaming @glyph @mhoye @chrisjrn it's a riff on this meme: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/spiders-georg   @SaanichGuy @mhoye don’t discount used EVs - the initial cost of all the materials has already been “paid”. Finding an inexpensive EV with 80% of the range remaining for normal day to day <50km trips and charging overnight on L2 seems pretty compelling for a lot of people. Not everyone has to have 300 mile range for driving between <US City> to <US City2> with no stops, 4 times a week.  Also, GM is down because of canceling their most successful model in favor of bigger cars. Oops. Well, they're bringing it back next year, so... not completely dumb.  @mhoye I read that chart as "customers avoiding Elon," "customers avoiding Mary Barra's bad decision to drop CarPlay," and “customers avoiding association with Volkswagen’s dieselgate crimes.” @mhoye and that explains Tesla finally opening up NACS to other manufacturers: they're going to turn into a patent licencing company and nothing more @mhoye Not just falling harder, but as the utterly dominant player in the space, totally skewing the entire market.  @mhoye called it. As soon as other makers decided to make some electric cars (not hard for them, just a market decision), there’s no need for Tesla. It was an early monopoly, nothing more. Strongly disagree; the fact that other manufacturers (also) fumbled the ball in getting EVs out showed it was hard for them. Tesla deserves credit for, to a non-trivial extent, actually making the market. They — particularly their leader — also deserve all the blame for having squandered their opportunity.  I look forward to the day when Pillow Guy and Self-pointed Musket shack up to save on rent. Imagine the arguments over what to set the thermostat to. @mhoye Imagine what this would look like if the Americans didn't just block Chinese EVs from their shitty market.    Like I said months ago, it's not really an "EV winter" if it's only snowing on Elon's house. Cool Cybertruck tho! Way to read the market Elon!  @mhoye Tesla also sold more EVs in Q1 2024 than all other EV manufacturers combined I get that the rest of them are up ~30%, but it’s still like ~120K cars total? There are like 50 million cars sold every year @mhoye "yeah, $56 billion seems like a fair payment to the guy that ruined Nicola Tesla's good name"  @mhoye you gotta give it to Elmo: when he does something, he does it all the way. In this case, that something is falling flat on his Nazi-curious face. But damn is he doing it with enthusiasm.  @mhoye And yet the guy was given another 6 000 000 000 USD for doing what he does best https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/27/elon-musk-xai-raises-openai-funding-round  Couldn’t find a source for the graphic, but this article from the site mentioned from April seems supportive: »EV Sales Growth Slows; Market Leader Tesla Stalls« https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q1-2024-ev-sales/ Also the #EV market share numbers from #Europe seem to indicate that #Tesla is tanking, in stark contrast to #VW, #Geely and other brands. https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Quarters @mhoye@mastodon.social Do you happen to have the source handy for where you got that graph? My attempt to track it down didn't get me anywhere, though I did find enough articles that agree the data that I don't doubt it. I'm largely just curious about the specific source if you have it on hand, but if not, no big.   @mhoye Americans should really push for trains and bicycles. @mhoye @mhoye and yet Tesla still sold more than all the others on that graph combined. They may have sold a Kia load less than they did last year, but they still sold 5x Ford. @mhoye I wonder what the current 2nd hand Tesla sales look like. In The netherlands, Tesla has been buying back second hand/ex-lease cars to keep the price of their new ones up. There's a couple of fields of used Teslas waiting for a better time to hit the market... https://www.anwb.nl/auto/nieuws/2023/december/gebruikte-evs-in-2024-stuk-goedkoper It also mentions about 30k ex-lease Tesla Model 3's will hit the market at the end of the year. @mhoye@mastodon.social This also doesn't include data for BYD, XPeng, and several other electric vehicle manufacturers in China.  @mhoye be interested to see other regions. Tesla still pretty popular here in Oz and a lot of cheap Chinese EVs coming in like BYD  @mhoye I don't have a car anymore since ~10 years, and I don't even live in a city (but in a tiny country). @mhoye I've never had statistics in school so this might be a super stupid question: Isn't that how averages work? @mhoye The graph/pic doesn't say so, but, is this just EV sales data for the other companies?
  @mhoye GM are doing a worse.. but yes on average the market is healthy. Absolute numbers aren't much use when Tesla sells 6 times the number of EVs as everyone else. @mhoye@mastodon.social One does also need to rule out the hypothesis "Tesla sales just distributed to the others, no real growth".  @mhoye Ooh interesting, there’s another story being told in this graph: GM. They made some real dumb decisions, trying to replace one of the best-selling and most-reasonably priced EVs with bigger, more expensive models that have fewer features and more subscriptions. As a Bolt owner, it’s gratifying to see so clearly the consequences of their greedy decisions. Hope the next-gen Bolt rebounds for them.   @mhoye Here in Germany, sales dropped from 18% BEV to 11%. And it's not just Tesla. https://insideevs.de/news/715313/elektroautomarkt-deutschland-1quartal2024-meistverkaufte/  @mhoye Muskrat is wildly hated by millions of people who are in Tesla's target demo. Now, many of those people wouldn't be caught dead in a Tesla. Tesla is imploding, and I am Related, NHTSA is gonna take #AutoPilot away https://hachyderm.io/@ethanjstark/112458457976341513 🍿   @mhoye but that’s just the USA, just one country. I imagine it’s even worse if it was global and included the industry leaders like GWM and BYD. You see GWM and BYD cars everywhere on the road today. No one is interested in Teslas any more.  @mhoye tangential rant: GM stupidly stopped making the Volt and only just realized PHEVs are actually a great market to be in.   @mhoye@mastodon.social @mhoye The companies with winning products are growing and those without... aren't. Chevy had a good product in the Bolt and they haven't replaced it. VW's id4 isn't that competitive (I own one, love it, but it's too $$$). Tesla is selling you the same car from 8 years ago, it's not bad but it's not nearly as competitive now as it used to be. Plus Elon is a dbag. |
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@mhoye holy cow