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Carl T. Bergstrom

We're so fucked.

"Our analysis of a selection of questionable GPT-fabricated scientific papers found in Google Scholar shows that many are about applied, often controversial topics susceptible to disinformation: the environment, health, and computing. The resulting enhanced potential for malicious manipulation of society’s evidence base, particularly in politically divisive domains, is a growing concern."

misinforeview.hks.harvard.edu/

We're so fucked.

"Our analysis of a selection of questionable GPT-fabricated scientific papers found in Google Scholar shows that many are about applied, often controversial topics susceptible to disinformation: the environment, health, and computing. The resulting enhanced potential for malicious manipulation of society’s evidence base, particularly in politically divisive domains, is a growing concern."

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Marcello Seri

@ct_bergstrom and that is just the beginning. Have you seen this? sakana.ai/ai-scientist/ (link to arXiv is also in the post)

craignicol

@ct_bergstrom funny how the people who have the most money in AI are also the ones who have funded or made money from disinformation 🤔

Antoine Alberti

@ct_bergstrom ok so not only do LLMs suck more energy than we can decently produce, and destroy the internet by flooding it with more BS than we can debunk, but its next target is now science.
Of course, LLMs are not a scient thing trying to fuck with humanity. We are doing this to ourselves in enlightened consent.

Carl T. Bergstrom

Allowing police officers to submit LLM-written reports reveals a remarkable misunderstanding of what LLMs do, a profound indifference to the notion of integrity in the communications of law enforcement with the justice system, or both.

Given how readily subject to suggestion human witnesses—including police officers—are known to be, this is a disaster.

Yes, police reports aren't always the most accurate, but introducing an additional layer of non-accountability is bad.

apnews.com/article/ai-writes-p

Allowing police officers to submit LLM-written reports reveals a remarkable misunderstanding of what LLMs do, a profound indifference to the notion of integrity in the communications of law enforcement with the justice system, or both.

Given how readily subject to suggestion human witnesses—including police officers—are known to be, this is a disaster.

Carl T. Bergstrom

It's a terrifying development.

LLMs are literally designed to generate *plausible-sounding* *bullshit*.

They have no accountability and even less allegiance to truth than crooked cops—but they will be much, much better at writing the kinds of falsehoods that will bring a conviction.

Carl T. Bergstrom

So this is crazy fcuked.

Despite their denial, Gizmodo caught the College Board (who administer the SAT, etc.) sharing scores and GPAs with Facebook, TikTok, etc.

gizmodo.com/sat-college-board-

“We do not share SAT scores or GPAs with Facebook or TikTok, and any other third parties using pixel or cookies,” said a College Board spokesperson. “In fact, we do not send any personally identifiable information (PII) through our pixels on the site. In addition, we do not use SAT scores or GPAs for any targeting.”

After receiving this comment, Gizmodo shared a screenshot of the College Board sending GPAs and SAT scores to TikTok using a pixel. The spokesperson then acknowledged that the College Board’s website actually does share this data.
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Infoseepage #StopGazaGenocide

@ct_bergstrom Some pretty crazily specific wording in their denial ""we do not share with X, Y and Z or anyone else using pixel (sp?) or cookies."

This immediately implies that they do share via some other mechanism...and then they get caught sharing using the mechanism they denied to begin with....

protozyn

@ct_bergstrom that's absolutely wild.

Isn't it a crime to do this, especially when it would involve minors, especially with data privacy since you would have to acknowledge you consent to having data shared with third parties?

Ezlin Rye

@ct_bergstrom

Yo that's fucked up.

"We don't do the thing."

"Here's video evidence of you doing the thing."

"Oh we're caught? lol yeah we do the thing."

We need the GDPR so bad in the U.S. it's just silly.

Carl T. Bergstrom

Welcome to everyone arriving from...elsewhere.

Here, lots of stuff about social media and science, but aloso ravens, crows, birdwatching, and birds, watching.

#crow #crows #mastodonmigration #twittermigration

Young crow on the beach, looking inquisitively at the camera.
tallship

@ct_bergstrom

Once upon a midnight dreary
I was weak I was very weary
All alone and no one I could phone...

It was bleak it was in December
Ah, distinctly I remember, I was cold and nowhere to call home

Oh, the raven,
His eyes have beheld the dark and mighty
Oh, the raven, in his eyes...

Carthage - ©1992, Cartel Music, Inc., BMI - all rights reserved.

#tallship #Carthage

.

@ct_bergstrom

Once upon a midnight dreary
I was weak I was very weary
All alone and no one I could phone...

It was bleak it was in December
Ah, distinctly I remember, I was cold and nowhere to call home

Oh, the raven,
His eyes have beheld the dark and mighty
Oh, the raven, in his eyes...

Carthage - ©1992, Cartel Music, Inc., BMI - all rights reserved.

Carl T. Bergstrom

My colleague Kevin Gross and I have a new preprint up on the arXiv.

Just for fun, rather than pure text simple text explainer, let's go some slides for a talk I'm giving at icssi.org/ tomorrow.

Here's the paper itself: Rationalizing risk aversion in science. arxiv.org/abs/2306.13816

Physics > Physics and Society

[Submitted on 23 Jun 2023]

Rationalizing risk aversion in science

Kevin Gross, Carl T. Bergstrom Scientific research requires taking risks, as the most cautious approaches are unlikely to lead to the most rapid progress. Yet much funded scientific research plays it safe and funding agencies bemoan the difficulty of attracting high-risk, high-return research projects. Why don't the incentives for scientific discovery adequately impel researchers toward such projects? Here we adapt an economic contracting model to explore how the unobservability of risk and effort discourages risky research. The model considers a hidden-action problem, in which the scientific community must reward discoveries in a way that encourages effort and risk-taking while simultaneously protecting researchers' livelihoods against the vicissitudes of scientific chance. Its challenge when doing so is that incentives to motivate effort clash with incentives to motivate risk-taking, because a failed project may be evidence of a risky undertaking but could also be the result of simple sloth. As a result, the incentives needed to encourage effort actively discourage risk-taking. Scientists respond by working on safe projects that generate evidence of effort but that don't move science forward as rapidly as riskier projects would. [snip]
Carl T. Bergstrom

The basic issue at hand is high-risk, high-return science. There is widespread sentiment, and even some scattered empirical evidence, that scientific research within academia is too cautious and that higher-risk, higher-return research would yield more progress more quickly.

High-risk, high return research.

(wheel of fortune spinning)
Carl T. Bergstrom

Listening to very smart people talk about #GPT4 I'm reminded of the joke about a checkers-playing dog.

A guy has a dog that plays checkers. "My goodness," everyone says, "that's amazing. What a brilliant dog!"

"Not really," he replies, "I beat him four games out of five."

That's GPT4. It's capacities are amazing and completely unexpected.

But it's also so limited. You shouldn't back the dog in a checkers tournament, and you shouldn't use an LLM as a medical assistant or in many other ways.

Carl T. Bergstrom

I feel like this joke captures a great deal of the dialectic that I see here and in the broader discussion around LLMs and AI right now.

I spend most of my time writing about how baffled I am to watch Microsoft and Google betting their futures—and to a degree, ours—on this dog's performance in the World Checkers Championship.

Other colleagues are legitimately amazed that the dog can play chess at all, and want to understand how well it plays, and how it manages to do it in the first place.

Carl T. Bergstrom

Here is a must-read post from children's author Maggie Tokuda-Hall on how Scholastic offered to publish her book — all she had to do was remove all mention of racism.

Sure, they're banning books in Tennessee and Texas. But it's not just the books that get published and then banned from the library. It's all the books that don't get published in the first place.

Those banning books know publishers like Scholastic pull this cowardly bullshit. It's their game plan.

prettyokmaggie.com/blog/2023/4

Here is a must-read post from children's author Maggie Tokuda-Hall on how Scholastic offered to publish her book — all she had to do was remove all mention of racism.

Sure, they're banning books in Tennessee and Texas. But it's not just the books that get published and then banned from the library. It's all the books that don't get published in the first place.

Cover of Maggie Tokuda-Hall's Love in the Library
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Ben Thompson

@ct_bergstrom that's quite a read. Thanks for sharing. Will be adding her books to my and my kids reading list.

Carl T. Bergstrom

I'm fascinated by the reciprocal nature of #birdwatching.

Birds are every bit as much watching us as we are watching them.

In my photography I try to capture bidirectional interaction in my photography.

I photograph birds watching me, but only when they can freely approach, and freely depart. I'm interested in their curiosity, not their fear.

This is a wild bird that approached me.

#birdphotography #photography #naturephotography

Curious crow against a black background
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/C\a/r\l/o\s/

@ct_bergstrom Our chickadees here are pretty much exhibitionists, flipping and flapping wildly as they bump and grind their bird parts together mid-flight, just about bouncing off my head in the process.

DELETED

@ct_bergstrom A really cool thing I read about is the parrots of Central and South America. They aren't "domesticated" per se, as in they weren't intentionally bred like dogs or livestock, but in urban areas, especially places straddling a city and the forest, these wild animals seem to just "know" how to interact with humans, they'll perch near you to ask for food and can recognize who feeds them most, and will preferentially go to the people who feed them as well as tourists who do so as well.

Carl T. Bergstrom

I'll admit it.

Sometimes I miss twitter.

 @aedison 

I wrote “l am alive” on a piece of paper, and placed itinto a photocopier. What | saw next has shocking implications 4
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Solarbird :flag_cascadia:

@ct_bergstrom I don't miss Twitter. But I occasionally miss some of the people who have made the bad decision to stay on Twitter.

ren 🏳️‍🌈 (a they/them)

@ct_bergstrom
@thatguy don't worry! Just like every other site, any good tweets, tiktoks, whatever always make their way across all the other sites!

So instead of you wading through 10s of thousands of tweets for a good one, just let the internet do it's thing.

Carl T. Bergstrom

Here is your must-read article for the day, a profile of @emilymbender, and her efforts to deflate the ridiculous hype around large language models such as ChatGPT.

It's also about the people who are behind that hype, and about what their way of thinking has the potential to do to us.

It's worth reading all the way to the end.

nymag.com/intelligencer/articl

Photo of Emily Bender with a parrot, and the text "You Are Not a Parrot And a chatbot is not a human. And a linguist named Emily M. Bender is very worried what will happen when we forget this."
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ares

@ct_bergstrom @emilymbender

So frustrating how conversation about #LLM and #ChatGPT completely misses the most important point.

We're so easily distracted by #SciFi questions like whether it's a mind, is it sentient, will it destroy humanity.

(No, no, and maybe.)

The most important point is that we (rightly) fear AI run amok because we (rightly) fear #capitalism run amok.

Yes, it hallucinates bogus facts.

Yes, it can be tricked into acting like a creepy stalker.

No, it doesn't simply predict the statistically most likely next word in a sequence.

It actually has an internal model of concepts and relationships, and can draw meaningful and truthful insights that are useful to humans.

In many cases, it's more useful than search engines or Wikipedia.

It's a powerful tool, and like all powerful tools, it will be used for good and for evil.

And you can bet that the evil uses are currently being accelerated and amplified by billionaires and profit-seeking corporations exploiting workers and customers and subverting democracy to enrich themselves.

Same as it ever was.

That's why the real point is that we need non-profit public-benefit organizations to drive safe and positive and trusted uses of this technology.

The Internet Archive, Wikipedia and craigslist are good examples.

The genie is out of the bottle. We can't wish this technology away.

Let's ensure it gets used for good.

Let's ensure humanity has a fighting chance against capitalism amplified by intelligent machines.

@ct_bergstrom @emilymbender

So frustrating how conversation about #LLM and #ChatGPT completely misses the most important point.

We're so easily distracted by #SciFi questions like whether it's a mind, is it sentient, will it destroy humanity.

(No, no, and maybe.)

The most important point is that we (rightly) fear AI run amok because we (rightly) fear #capitalism run amok.

vampirdaddy

@ct_bergstrom @emilymbender
Dasselbe Problem, über das Joseph Weizenbaum schon vor 56 Jahren mit seinem viel primitiveren "Eliza" gestolpert ist (siehe auch sein Buch: "Die Macht der Computer und die Ohnmacht der Vernunft", 1976)

Carl T. Bergstrom

Borbness is more than a matter of shape. It's a matter of attitude.

#borb #birding #birdphotography #birdwatching

Fluffy round female bushtit with attitude.
Carl T. Bergstrom

I've been speaking and writing lately about how tech companies try to shift the discussion on misinformation, polarization, harassment, etc., away from the systems and structures that are inherently toxic and toward questions of individual behavior.

This way they can blame their own users for any pathology and steer clear of calls for systemic change.

Today Elon Musk has come through with a perfect illustration for my future talks.

#socialmedia #twitter #ElonMusk

Elon Musk tweet

Trashing accounts that you hate will cause our algorithm to show you more of those accounts, as it is keying off of your interactions.

Basically saying if you love trashing *that* account, then you will probably also love trashing *this* account.

Not actually wrong lol.

7:47 PM - Jan 16, 2023 - 13.2M Views
Carl T. Bergstrom

This should be obvious, but having an algorithm that behaves that way is a DELIBERATE CHOICE.

It would be easy enough, for example, to implement basic sentiment analysis so that the algorithm doesn't boost content that you have reacted negatively to in the future.

Musk is playing it both ways. He keeps the algorithm that boosts inflammatory content and drives the online conflicts that draw views and clicks, while pushing the blame for this off onto the individuals involved.

That sucks.

Carl T. Bergstrom

For the holiday, a thread on how to befriend crows.

--

Befriending crows is a wonderful thing.

I have many crow friends at home and at work. They bring joy at unexpected moments and can rescue a miserable day even without shaking down the dust of snow that Robert Frost described.

This thread is an updated version of one I posted at the bird site in July 2019.

#birding #birdwatching #birds #urbanbirding #crows #corvids #crow #corvid #crowfriends

Portrait of an American crow
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WTF

@ct_bergstrom I’ve been feeding him for 7 years but it won’t come near me

Elle

@ct_bergstrom Fascinating. Thanks for the great thread. I never knew how responsive and intelligent they were. Animals and birds are more aware than us humans give them credit for. Great pics too.

Ray Weitzenberg

@larry pretty cool. wish there were still crows around my pop's place

Carl T. Bergstrom

Inspired by today's travel problems, I wrote something about why corporate customer service systems fail during crisis events.

I like the formatting over at post.news (much as I dislike the ownership), so you can read the piece there:

post.news/article/2JLN7sXUcrlR

I'll also "serialize" it here, below.

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Fifi Lamoura

@ct_bergstrom Shame it's a walled garden so we can't actually read the post over there (from here at least).

Kai Bernau

@ct_bergstrom “There is no central exchange” (Mark Fisher, Capitalist Realism)

A page from Mark Fisher’s Capitalist Realism, specifically a passage from chapter 8 “There is no central exchange”, claiming that the ultimate “failure of the neoliberal world to live up to its own PR [is the] call center”. It’s a good book you should read it!
Carl T. Bergstrom

At age ten, I started #birding after moving to Australia and falling in love with the colorful and charismatic parrots of Canberra.

Upon moving back to Michigan a year later, I kept it up and loved it—but after Australia, I just couldn't really get into sparrows. Too little-brown-bird for me.

Funny how time changes you. These days, I adore the precise and exquisite tweeds of North American sparrows.

Below, a lovely Lincoln's sparrow taken in Seattle last week.

#birdphotography #sparrow

Lincoln's sparrow
Carl T. Bergstrom

Today was the straw that broke the camel's back for me.

This morning Elon Musk tweeted that his pronouns were prosecute/Fauci.

You can’t study evolutionary biology under the roof of the Discovery Institute and you can’t have meaningful and productive scientific collaboration on a platform run by right-wing troll who denies science when its results are inconvenient to him and just simply to hear his audience cheer.

Carl T. Bergstrom

Twitter has been an amazingly valuable platform for scientists over the years, and it was integral to coordinate global scientific activity during the early part of the COVID pandemic.

Sadly, we live in a world where one malignantly narcissistic billionaire can destroy all of that for lulz and the adulation of Marjorie Taylor Greene.

I've locked my account and will be deleting the content as I figure out the right way to do it.

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