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GreySkies

@augieray

Thanks, this is interesting... so it appears to be that reinfections are getting more common with each new iteration of the virus. This could be attributed to increased immune escape, lack of vaccine boosters or a combination of the two and perhaps other factors.

In short: an utter failure of health care systems and governing bodies.

11 comments
Augie Ray

@GreySkies Evolutionary pressure for a still-rapidly-mutating virus (that is being helped by the population's utter unwillingness to take any precautions) was going to mean it evolved to reinfect more people. I don't know where this ends, but I think this fall and winter, many people will be disappointed to learn their presumptions about COVID were all wrong.

GreySkies

@augieray

I wish you were right, because this could finally mean change in the right direction. I do, however, believe the opposite is going to happen. People will double down on their behavior, simply because there IS no alternative to it in the collective mind. The alternative would be masking largely (among other measures) and masks are dead for the general public. So no matter how sick they get and how many die, it's all still better than masks i'm afraid (for them).

Graydon

@GreySkies @augieray Couple-three things.
One, masks—anything that loops over your ears—don't work as airborne precautions, and this will match people's empirical experience.

Two, from the single wild type to the very many circulating lineages today, we've seen COVID go from "easier to catch than flu" to "the spreadingest disease known to man". Selection is real. It's not true—part of how people understand reality—for hardly anyone.

Three, people do exhibit learning behaviour. Just not fast.

@GreySkies @augieray Couple-three things.
One, masks—anything that loops over your ears—don't work as airborne precautions, and this will match people's empirical experience.

Two, from the single wild type to the very many circulating lineages today, we've seen COVID go from "easier to catch than flu" to "the spreadingest disease known to man". Selection is real. It's not true—part of how people understand reality—for hardly anyone.

Grassroots Joe

@graydon @GreySkies @augieray

Are you saying that KN95's are not worth wearing?

I'd need to go searching for articles/studies I've seen that say otherwise, but I'm pretty confident that they're out there.

N95s are certainly better, but only if you can manage to keep them on for the full duration of possible exposure - no nose scratching, no sips of water, no snacks...

Is that feasible on let's say a coast to coast flight?

Graydon

@joeinwynnewood @GreySkies @augieray Against R₀ ≅ measles current circulating variants, you want a continuous, well-fitting, elastomeric gasket against bare skin. (Block the filters and inhale and the mask crumples but does not leak as you hold the inhale.)

COVID has evolved; what was more than sufficient against the wild type is not necessarily sufficient today.

COVID brain damage mechanisms that are inescapable and permanent are now known in detail. I'd stay off the flight.

Graydon

@joeinwynnewood @GreySkies @augieray If you want some home empiricism, finish sand—meaning use a fine grit—a lot of pine in various masks and see what's in the mask at the end of the day.

Elastomerics got created in industrial contexts for a reason. Simple disposable masks, even N95s, tend to leak if you move your face much or after twenty minutes and the nose bridge doesn't hold its shape. That's because they have to be cheap enough to be disposable.

Elastomerics work better and cost less.

Grassroots Joe

@graydon @GreySkies @augieray
The real question is whether or not near 100% filtering of airborne virus is required to prevent infection.
I'm hard pressed to believe this is the case when current (administration within past 6 months) on the latest vaccination formulation (bivalent as of now).

Graydon

@joeinwynnewood @GreySkies @augieray Today, mRNA vaccines somewhat reduce your risk of death. The decreased odds of becoming infected due to vaccination are gone by month three, and were never grounds for confidence. See lookerstudio.google.com/embed/ (From covid19resources.ca/covid-haza under "Infections", top of the right hand column.)

With COVID, brain damage is certain once infected. Better to not get infected in the first place. Get vaccinated, but emphasise air quality and the best respirator.

@joeinwynnewood @GreySkies @augieray Today, mRNA vaccines somewhat reduce your risk of death. The decreased odds of becoming infected due to vaccination are gone by month three, and were never grounds for confidence. See lookerstudio.google.com/embed/ (From covid19resources.ca/covid-haza under "Infections", top of the right hand column.)

Grassroots Joe

@graydon @GreySkies @augieray

First, I've had 6 vaccinations, that chart only goes to 4. Second it says nothing about the degree to which vaccination reduces the likelihood of infection in public spaces.
Lastly, your statement regarding brain damage is highly suspect. The possibility certainly exists as is the case with cardiovascular issues, but certain damage?
I very much doubt you can find a quality study that makes such a definitive conclusion.
Air quality and high quality masks? Of course.

Graydon replied to Grassroots

@joeinwynnewood @GreySkies @augieray You might want to look for "COVID neuron fusion"; you might find the university press release uq.edu.au/news/article/2023/06 or the paper, science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv interesting.

(There is of course nothing to say this is the only mechanism.)

As for vaccination; those figures give the odds of infection on exposure. Where the exposure happens isn't relevant.

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