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I dedicate this post to all the folks who said we needed to rush to “herd immunity” and say “covid is over.” #COVID19 reinfection data based on medical billing records in Japan. Interval between infections: Wave 1~3 (Wildtype virus): 16.9 months Source in Japanese: https://nordot.app/1044409895176618680 28 comments
@GreySkies Evolutionary pressure for a still-rapidly-mutating virus (that is being helped by the population's utter unwillingness to take any precautions) was going to mean it evolved to reinfect more people. I don't know where this ends, but I think this fall and winter, many people will be disappointed to learn their presumptions about COVID were all wrong. I wish you were right, because this could finally mean change in the right direction. I do, however, believe the opposite is going to happen. People will double down on their behavior, simply because there IS no alternative to it in the collective mind. The alternative would be masking largely (among other measures) and masks are dead for the general public. So no matter how sick they get and how many die, it's all still better than masks i'm afraid (for them). Are you saying that KN95's are not worth wearing? I'd need to go searching for articles/studies I've seen that say otherwise, but I'm pretty confident that they're out there. N95s are certainly better, but only if you can manage to keep them on for the full duration of possible exposure - no nose scratching, no sips of water, no snacks... Is that feasible on let's say a coast to coast flight?  @joeinwynnewood @GreySkies @augieray Against R₀ ≅ measles current circulating variants, you want a continuous, well-fitting, elastomeric gasket against bare skin. (Block the filters and inhale and the mask crumples but does not leak as you hold the inhale.) COVID has evolved; what was more than sufficient against the wild type is not necessarily sufficient today. COVID brain damage mechanisms that are inescapable and permanent are now known in detail. I'd stay off the flight. @joeinwynnewood @GreySkies @augieray If you want some home empiricism, finish sand—meaning use a fine grit—a lot of pine in various masks and see what's in the mask at the end of the day. Elastomerics got created in industrial contexts for a reason. Simple disposable masks, even N95s, tend to leak if you move your face much or after twenty minutes and the nose bridge doesn't hold its shape. That's because they have to be cheap enough to be disposable. Elastomerics work better and cost less. @graydon @GreySkies @augieray First, I've had 6 vaccinations, that chart only goes to 4. Second it says nothing about the degree to which vaccination reduces the likelihood of infection in public spaces. @joeinwynnewood @GreySkies @augieray You might want to look for "COVID neuron fusion"; you might find the university press release https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2023/06/covid-19-can-cause-brain-cells-fuse%E2%80%99 or the paper, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adg2248 interesting. (There is of course nothing to say this is the only mechanism.) As for vaccination; those figures give the odds of infection on exposure. Where the exposure happens isn't relevant.   @augieray@mastodon.social @augieray Soon we won’t even need to wonder about “long” anything. People will stumble from sick to sick to… @augieray thanks for this- the only reliable numbers we have are going to be from other countries as our own citizenry (American) have dubbed COVID “just a cold” and aren’t testing, tracing or isolating (just my personal experience.) So in fact we should assume that the situation is more extreme in the US than in Japan. As to the masks conversation: I and my husband have worn KN95 since 2020 and have dodged infection BUT we also follow all the precautions. @augieray meaning: no flights or long public transport, no bars or restaurants, no hotels, no parties or concerts or conventions or weddings, doctors visits yes even the occasional dentist and hairdresser. At school as a teacher I added two additional filters and have intake and outtake fans in windows all year round and eat lunch in my car. Masks alone won’t do it. But #MasksWork  @augieray I don't think that COVID is over... I think COVID came to stay... We had the chance to erradicate COVID and failed it as humanity Congrats to all antivaxx fuckers I was about to say something I would regret dearly, but I hope Karma hits them hard @fabiocosta0305 I'm not sure we could've eradicated it completely, TBH. I think we always would've had COVID. We might've saved a lot more lives early in the pandemic with more rapid and complete action. And in the long-term, we could prevent a lot of suffering and disability if we adopted better public health measures. But, I'm not sure we could have eradicated COVID. @augieray On the other hand... Doesn't this mean that COVID will *never* be over, and so many measures we take to deal with it should be measures we can live with long-term? @marymessall On the one hand, I think it's likely COVID will never be over. On the other, where do you see long-term measures? We haven't changed social habits. We don't wear masks. We have not passed laws for cleaner and more monitored air in public spaces. Vaccine uptake is miserably low. I agree this data tells us COVID may be here to stay, and it SHOULD encourage to take the long-term measures we've almost completely ignored. @augieray I'm pro-vaccine, pro-HVAC modernization, pro-masks (especially in healthcare settings or if someone has any symptoms of anything). I agree with you that all of these tools are still under-used. I don't think changing social habits is a long term solution. When we're trying to interrupt exponential growth before vaccines and treatments are available, we have little choice but isolation. But it's not sustainable, and leads to backlash that spills over onto other measures if overused. @marymessall There are a lot of ways to change social habits that don't involve constant isolation. Like prioritizing outdoor activities. Or going over to someone's house versus meeting them in a crowded bar. Or staying home in months when COVID surges. I get tired of people saying we can't change habits. We used to not wear seatbelts or wear helmets on bikes. We used to hang out in bars cloudy with smoke. Somehow, we managed the miracle of change to protect health. @augieray Outdoor activities are fine, when possible. But it's not realistic or fair to ask people to give up crowded bars, performances, parties, sporting events, classes, conferences, religious worship... Forever. Being in crowds all sharing the same experience is fundamental to human culture in a way that bench seats and tobacco are not. Staying home for months is likewise *painful* for people, something we can successfully impose only briefly & in emergencies. But COVID is here to stay, now. |
Gregory's Server
@augieray
Thanks, this is interesting... so it appears to be that reinfections are getting more common with each new iteration of the virus. This could be attributed to increased immune escape, lack of vaccine boosters or a combination of the two and perhaps other factors.
In short: an utter failure of health care systems and governing bodies.