Gregory's Serverconsider what it means when planning itself becomes futile because we can’t reasonably assume what future conditions will be. if we can’t reasonably understand what a bridge, farm or dam will encounter, what does planning at scale mean?
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5 comments
@IAmDannyBoling @GhostOnTheHalfShell @chu I've noticed this too. Especially the long-term forecasts (10-13 days) are wildly fluctuating, sometimes completely changing their patterns within 24-48 hours.  It isn’t (quite) about weather forecasts, but about climate forecasts that shape weather decades in the future and the projections being used to shape infrastructure based on them. As an example, dams might see more silt and runoff than anticipated in the worse case. Bridges may be destabilized because river flow changed. but, this year’s El Niño is taking place during insane Atlantic temps. It’s new territory. In this sense historical data is losing relevance. This is a different level of unpredictability that effects modernity in a different way than being able to project extremities and design or decide based on them. It’s bad enough to say a region will see more drought and extreme rain and anticipate the range of that change and what needs to be done. If we can’t model the trajectory of climate correctly we can’t do that either. This is flying blind. It means projects like dams, energy plants, canals, farms, cities, industry, ports, transport (especially river) and perhaps wind farms are (may be) undertaken with no real idea of what conditions they will operate in over their expected life. Same for the maintenance of what exists. End of life structures and even new ones, who knows if they are adequately designed or will last according to feasibility. |
@GhostOnTheHalfShell
My experience over the last couple of years makes me believe that weather forecasting is already becoming less and less reliant. Example: 10-day forecasts are drastically changing more frequently. If I look at the forecast for 10 days from now, the chance that the actual weather on that day will be today's forecasted weather is rapidly decreasing, making planning much more difficult. This will only get worse as our models fall out of sync because of climate change.
@chu