Gregory's Server
It isn’t (quite) about weather forecasts, but about climate forecasts that shape weather decades in the future and the projections being used to shape infrastructure based on them.
As an example, dams might see more silt and runoff than anticipated in the worse case. Bridges may be destabilized because river flow changed.
but, this year’s El Niño is taking place during insane Atlantic temps. It’s new territory. In this sense historical data is losing relevance.
@IAmDannyBoling @chu
This is a different level of unpredictability that effects modernity in a different way than being able to project extremities and design or decide based on them.
It’s bad enough to say a region will see more drought and extreme rain and anticipate the range of that change and what needs to be done. If we can’t model the trajectory of climate correctly we can’t do that either. This is flying blind.