Gregory's ServerMany people are saying, "Nobody could have predicted the growth of the Fediverse."
Actually, many people predicted the growth of the Fediverse -- including me.
It's just that the people who predicted growth weren't VCs and Press.
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 Let's also consider the physical realities of Metaverse vs. Fediverse. Metaverse requires hardware that does not yet have mass adoption. You need a VR headset or AR glasses -- something most people don't readily have available. Those who do have that hardware are constrained by limitations such as battery power. In contrast, the Fediverse works on desktops, laptops, smartphones -- even a Raspberry Pi. Hardware is no bottleneck for the Fediverse. Meta's push into the Metaverse is Exhibit "A" for corporate sunk cost fallacy. They continue to invest in it because they've already sunk billions of dollars into it. To stop investing in the Metaverse is to acknowledge failure. This company is so invested, they even changed their name. What's going on with "Metaverse" is a textbook Kansas city shuffle. Big Social recognized that there was a con. They believed they were too smart to fall for the con -- thus invested in it. But while they were looking right, something else happened to the left -- outside their field of vision. Specifically, their so-called "users" aren't joining the Metaverse. They're going somewhere else. https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=kansas%20city%20shuffle Big Social has some very smart people working for it. They've combed through the metrics of the Metaverse. They've charted growth. They've looked through all the data and validated how it's trending. All the while, they've dismissed the Fediverse because it's not amenable to metrics and is therefore *not* validated. This is the con: metrics. Big Social ignored the Fediverse because they've conned the world with metrics for so long -- they now believe in it religiously. I have no doubt that Big Social is still dismissing the Fediverse, believing that any growth is a result of a "black swan event". I mean, why else would they do such silly things such as banning 3rd party apps that access their APIs? The likes of Meta, Twitter, and TikTok believe they "own" the network effect -- that they can shape it to their liking. The simple fact is that Big Social got conned by their own con. Case in point: AltspaceVR is being shut down. Microsoft likely regrets their investment in a Metaverse social network. It is indeed a "Metaverse winter". Many people ask, "What's next for the Fediverse?" Building more infrastructure! This means protocols, frameworks, instances, and clients. And while we're at it, documentation as well. But what's apparent to me is that the Fediverse will *not* be built by Big Social, but by small developers and enthusiasts that believe in its mission. It's the Fediverse's core mission (freedom, safety, open protocols, de-centralization) that makes it captivating.  |
Another reason for the "Metaverse winter" and "Fediverse spring":
Cost.
Starting up a Fediverse service is vastly less expensive than starting up a Metaverse service.
Remember, when the Metaverse gained popularity, companies were flush with cash amidst ongoing lockdowns.
But conditions change.
Now companies are preparing for an oncoming recession. And fewer people are staying home.