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Johannes Ernst

If you were to write an "analyst report" and you had three short bullet points to explain "why the #fediverse, and why now?", what would you write?

21 comments
Dr.Implausible

@J12t
1. The Fediverse is the fastest growing segment of the internet, and is posed for explosive growth throughout 2023 and 2024.
2. The Fediverse allows greater organizational control of your presence and connections online.
3. The Fediverse is "Web 4.0"*, a re-imagining of the original purpose and potential of the internet.

Probably too wordy, but close enough.

* It's not, but again it kinda is?

@J12t
1. The Fediverse is the fastest growing segment of the internet, and is posed for explosive growth throughout 2023 and 2024.
2. The Fediverse allows greater organizational control of your presence and connections online.
3. The Fediverse is "Web 4.0"*, a re-imagining of the original purpose and potential of the internet.

Johannes Ernst

@drimplausible Why is it "the fastest growing segment of the internet" (is that true? Are there numbers?) and why is it "posed for explosive growth"?

Dr.Implausible

@J12t Fair question, I guess it depends on how Threads is counted amongst this, as Fediverse adjacent or not, but I think this still holds true with a qualifier or two.

The various posters of the #fediverse stats seemed to indicate the growth was a) significant and b) real, so ... close enough for a high level statement.

Johannes Ernst

@drimplausible Well, I don't know, for example, Meta as a whole in their earnings report just reported record MAUs across all of their products. I would expect that most Threads users were existing Instagram users, so they don't count as incremental MAUs, and so I would expect that user growth for Meta products was larger somewhere else than for Threads.

Johannes Ernst

@drimplausible "allows greater organization control of your presence and connections online" -- what kind of control specifically in terms of features? Who wants it? And why do they want it? And why do they want it now?

Dr.Implausible

@J12t Hmm, I think there was a typo there, as I meant "organizational control", but still.

This would involve greater control in terms of participation, who you can connect with, and who can access and engage with your "space" and content, via blocking, defederating, and your relation to the underlying server.

There may still be barriers (ie depending on who your host is, or where it is located), but there are more options than exist with the walled gardens.

Johannes Ernst

@drimplausible "Re-imagining of the original purpose and potential of the internet" -- who wants to re-imagine that, and why does it matter to them? After all, nobody re-imagines the original purpose of say, the road system (horses, wagons, troops on foot movements)

(I'm not disagreeing, I'm just trying to make the reasoning explicit.)

Dr.Implausible

@J12t It's a fair question. In my mind's eye the re-imagineers are the creators, contributors, and early adopters of the Fediverse.

While I was conducting the research for the most recent episode of the podcast, I was struck with how many parallels there were between the Fediverse and the internet of the 80s and 90s. There's a strong degree of overlap here as well, with personalities I witnessed via NNTP back in the mid 90s to now.

Stefan Bohacek

@J12t

Why:

- fediverse gives control back to the people, away from corporation that extract value from our interests and relationships
- fediverse is built on open technologies, which encourages innovation and creation of new tools

Why now:

- there is a growing momentum as legacy social media falters due to "enshittification"

Johannes Ernst

@stefan When you say "control", what kind of control, who wants it and why? What's the evidence they do want it? (I'm not disagreeing, just trying to make the reasoning explicit)

Stefan Bohacek

@J12t That is a good question!

The kind of control I had in mind is about owning our data and knowing what happens with it, and being able to make decisions about it, either by appealing to the maintainers of the instances we're on, or moving to another one. Or running our server. And there is also control over our experience because of a lack of algorithms designed to rile us up into more "user activity".

Johannes Ernst

@stefan I’m not sure that’s actually entirely true. I for one do not know what happens to my data on the various fediverse instances I’m on. I settle for “oh, I know some of the social.coop key people and I trust them” but then, my trust may be misplaced and I cannot be certain all people who, say, have access to the backup tapes are even qualified to understand how to handle them properly.

Stefan Bohacek

@J12t You make a good point.

I actually started my own server, because I wanted to change my username on mastodon.social, and the signups were closed at the time.

And I wasn't too interested in researching admins and owners of each instance to see where I should move next.

For me, fediverse does give me this kind of control, but arguably this comes with an actual monetary price, plus required technical knowledge (less so with the various managed hosting providers, but you still have to pay).

Johannes Ernst

I think my answer would be:

1. the increasing enshittification of the current internet causes individuals and communities to seek out still-less-enshittified alternatives, and preferably alternatives that are less like to do so in the future. ("Use mastodon: no ads!")

2. the growing unease with use of collected personal data for manipulation by the big platforms causes users to seek out places that don't do that. ("Use mastodon: no algorithms!)

3. some organizations are beginning ...

Johannes Ernst

... to recognize that an open social network allows them to innovate in ways that they never could in a closed network, potentially leading to new business opportunities.

Paul100

@J12t@social.coop
I do not share your optimism.
1. A person has learned to ignore advertising. Social networks have found the right 'dose'.
2. Large social networks have more predictable intentions and are under more control than private instances.
3 Business opportunities are very limited due to different instance policies. Difficult to scale.

To develop
#fediverse, you need a franchise. Network, instances, guaranteeing basic security for the user.

Johannes Ernst

@Paul100 to clarify, my post was not about how the fediverse will take over the world. It was only about why there suddenly is interest (by a comparatively small, but noticeable) set of people and organizations. How far it can go from here is a different conversation. I agree that most of the problems that need to be solved before this can become a mass market phenomenon so far are unaddressed.

Adam Dalliance

@J12t

* Own your own data
* No enshitification
* No risk of being cancelled or bought out.

🍄🌈🎮💻🚲🥓🎃💀🏴🛻🇺🇸

@J12t

1. Open Standards - the fediverse is just an extension of the web, an open standard for social networking was inevitable, and long overdue.
2. Decentralization - preventing a single entity from becoming a gatekeeper and bottleneck like Twitter and Reddit did.
3. Moderation - communities want to set cultural standards for themselves, and still communicate with each other.

All of these are reactions to centralized big-tech having captured social media in Web2.0

@J12t

1. Open Standards - the fediverse is just an extension of the web, an open standard for social networking was inevitable, and long overdue.
2. Decentralization - preventing a single entity from becoming a gatekeeper and bottleneck like Twitter and Reddit did.
3. Moderation - communities want to set cultural standards for themselves, and still communicate with each other.

Johannes Ernst

@schizanon can I challenge you :-) to rephrase this in an active voice like: <person category x> wants <y> because they that gives them <benefit z>?

Pal

@J12t
1) Rampant enshitification due to networks wanting to profit off AI and a minor downturn scaring VCs into wanting a higher ROI
2) Social media has become a prime means to get info iso. websearch like Google used to. People taking the obligation to provide that info without relying on a single unreliable service
3) People wising up on their privacy, suffering ad-burnout and want a solution that gets out of their way and instead focuses on just functioning

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