@yura Myself I think it is something in between. Take all theories and add their most probable components together. The result looks rather realistic.

I.e. something like this: Ministry of Defense had conflict with Wagner and decided to disband it and take their resources into the army. This would end bad for Prigozhin (not just asset loss but prosecution or worse) so he decided to take preemptive action. He was likely pushed/sanctioned to do so by some influential people thus little resistance. The goal wasn't to take over Moscow but basically blackmail to force Putin to negotiate and give Prigozhin an exit or face unrest.

At some point someone saw a way to get rid of Wagner in Russia but still keep it in existence and available for some possible use on commercial basis by letting them move to Belarus and partially disarming them. This wasn't some elaborate plan but quick solution which fitted the situation. Who knows how it plays out in the future.