@samhenrigold Nate Silver's Monte Carlo simulations for presidential election results were reasonable, as is the way he weights polls. But keep in mind that an 85% chance of winning is not a reason to feel complacent: the chance of surviving a round of Russian roulette is 83.3%.

BTW, Nate Silver is no longer associated with the FiveThirtyEight & he now seems to have a paywall.