@samhenrigold but, they saybthe wrong stuff loudly...doesnt that mean they are right?

@samhenrigold but, but, Nate was right that one time (and has hung his whole career on that nail).

@samhenrigold There are already lots of consulting firms like that in virtually every field. The only requirement for starting one is to be a white dude who comes from money.

@samhenrigold yep @Olyindivisible

@samhenrigold subscribe to our podcast, Negative Alpha Men

@samhenrigold Nate Silver's Monte Carlo simulations for presidential election results were reasonable, as is the way he weights polls. But keep in mind that an 85% chance of winning is not a reason to feel complacent: the chance of surviving a round of Russian roulette is 83.3%.

BTW, Nate Silver is no longer associated with the FiveThirtyEight & he now seems to have a paywall.

@samhenrigold Jim Cramer has been loudly, repeatedly, publicly wrong about matters of major and minor consequence. Is the same really true for Silver? He definitely has an abrasive personality but I find his long-form writings to be even-tempered and persuasive about probability.

@samhenrigold NS was right about Biden dropping put tho

@samhenrigold They can pull in Marc Thiessen and make it a trio. Oh, wait, what about Bret Stephens too, the Times shouldn't be excluded.