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Molly White

The cryptocurrency industry has been working overtime to sell a story: that there is a large contingent of voters voting based on candidates’ crypto policy stances. The problem is, it’s a story that does not seem to be well supported by data.

citationneeded.news/when-did-c

#CitationNeeded #crypto #CryptoLobby #USpolitics #USpol

29 Jul 2024 at 22:50 | Open on hachyderm.io
15 comments
Erick RM
Erick RM
John Breen

@molly0xfff Can't we just call it corruptocurrency ? It kind of rhymes, and is more accurate (and does not implicate cryptographers as being criminals by association) 😎

29 Jul 2024 at 22:58 | Open on universeodon.com
John Breen

@molly0xfff Tales From the Crypt-ocurrency" ?
Crypt O'Currency, my Irish uncle...

I'm here all night - thanks, OK, I'll see myself out...

29 Jul 2024 at 23:01 | Open on universeodon.com
DELETED

@molly0xfff No one in my non-internet life talks about crypto at all.

29 Jul 2024 at 22:59 | Open on mastodon.social
Sir Egg of Nogg 🎅 🎄

@stardustlovechild @molly0xfff

The only times I hear it mentioned IRL, is in the same way one would mention emails from Nigerian princes or calls about my car's extended warranty.

29 Jul 2024 at 23:02 | Open on beige.party
Molly White

@stardustlovechild indeed — that’s partly why i wanted to write this piece, because there are headlines in more mainstream (ie non-crypto industry) publications about the “crypto election” and people who are not as terminally online are going “the what?”

29 Jul 2024 at 23:14 | Open on hachyderm.io
Molly White

An April 2024 survey funded by the Digital Currency Group and published by the crypto lobbying group The Blockchain Association was not shy about aiming its messaging directly at politicians, trying to convince them of the existence of a sizable crypto voting bloc.

#CitationNeeded #crypto #CryptoLobby #USpolitics #USpol

Key Findings 6 Crypto as a voting issue could present a key opportunity for political candidates. • The vast majority of voters overall and Crypto-Positive voters plan to vote in the upcoming 2024 elections (90%+)and are closely split in party lean. • A sizeable number of voters (40%) wish political candidates talked more about digital currency. • Most voters do not trust elected officials to understand innovative technology like crypto, and more than half are concerned about policymakers stifling innovation via overregulation. The vast majority want policymakers to be sure they understand crypto before regulating. • Nearly half of voters do not trust political candidates that would interfere with crypto. One-quarter say that enthusiasm towards crypto would make them trust a political candidate more. 30% would be more likely to support a political candidate that is friendly to crypto. • The Crypto-Positive bloc is even more strongly in favor of pro-crypto positions than overall voters.
29 Jul 2024 at 23:02 | Open on hachyderm.io
Molly White

A glance at the survey design quickly reveals the story the industry was hoping to tell with the results. Even more profound are the kinds of questions that were not included, which could have provided a clearer (but perhaps unwanted) view of voters’ actual beliefs.

#CitationNeeded #crypto #CryptoLobby #USpolitics #USpol

A glance at the survey design quickly reveals the story the industry was hoping to tell with the results, asking respondents to agree or disagree with statements like “Crypto is more equitable than the traditional financial system” and “Crypto represents a new way towards financial security and prosperity”.
Even more profound are the kinds of questions that were not included, which could have provided a clearer (but perhaps unwanted) view of voters’ actual beliefs. While the poll invited respondents to agree or disagree with the statement: “Crypto is a major issue I’m considering during the next election”, they failed to distinguish between respondents who viewed crypto negatively or were hoping for stricter regulations, and those who might support crypto-friendly candidates. There were no questions inquiring about how people prioritized cryptocurrency alongside other common election issues. There were no questions aimed at determining if a respondent might be willing to overlook other policy disagreements, or partisan alliances, if a candidate aligned with them on crypto. Furthermore, the summary of survey results betrays the industry’s attempt to present this seemingly manufactured narrative. Without digging into the numbers, the survey summary seems to support the industry’s story that there is a sizable group of voters — in swing states, no less! — looking for any crypto-friendly candidate they can support. The numbers, on the other hand, reveal that 69% of the survey respondents held a negative opinion of cryptocurrency. And nowhere does the survey mention that out of the 252 people who responded that “crypto is a major issue I’m considering during the next election”, 100 of them held a negative opinion of the asset class.
29 Jul 2024 at 23:02 | Open on hachyderm.io
Molly White

Furthermore, the supposed number of crypto holders (“52 million”!) that companies like Coinbase like to throw around come largely from a poorly-designed survey with methodology its designers seem unwilling to disclose, and are vastly higher than other estimates.

#CitationNeeded #crypto #CryptoLobby #USpolitics #USpol

The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, which is behind the Stand With Crypto advocacy group and super PAC [I62], loves to trot out the figure: “52 million Americans own crypto”. This would suggest that more than 20% of adult Americans hold crypto. Other even higher figures have been presented, including those as large as 100 million — or more than 1/3 of the adult population. The thinking goes: if such a large proportion of Americans own crypto, surely they will support crypto-friendly candidates at the ballot box.c The number is, however, highly dubious. The 52 million figure comes from a 2023 Coinbase-funded survey by Morning Consult that dramatically contradicts other surveys, such as a report from the Federal Reserve7 that found that only 7% of adultsd had engaged in any use of cryptocurrency that year (including buying or holding), and, furthermore, that that figure was shrinking. The Fed survey also notes that their number may skew high because the survey was conducted online. Table 21. Cryptocurrency use Type of use 2021 2022 2023 Bought cryptocurrency or held as an investment 11 8 7 Used cryptocurrency to buy something or make a payment 2 2 1 Used cryptocurrency to send money to friends or family 1 2 1 Any use of cryptocurrency 12 10 7 Note: Among all adults. Respondents could select multiple answers.
Statistician David Marker recently opined in an interview with Jake Donoghue: “This survey has not provided enough information to refute claims of it being low quality and spurious. [Morning Consult] hasn’t presented evidence to make you feel comfortable… with a survey which was funded by an organization which would like and benefit from these results.” Marker then noted his concerns that there may have been a serious sampling flaw in Morning Consult’s survey that, if it exists, would invalidate the numbers entirely. Though Donoghue was able to discuss the survey with Morning Consult, they stopped responding when he asked about their sampling and methodology, and never responded to his follow-up inquiries.
29 Jul 2024 at 23:06 | Open on hachyderm.io
Molly White

Regardless of the caricatures that have emerged, most cryptocurrency holders are pretty normal people, with nuanced political beliefs and hopes for the future that go far beyond the tokens they hold in their digital wallets.

#CitationNeeded #crypto #CryptoLobby #USpolitics #USpol

But it is also important to separate the bitcoin billionaires and the wealthy executives in the cryptocurrency industry from the much larger group of people that industry is claiming are mobilizing on their behalf. As I noted a few weeks ago: (Quoted tweet): it's interesting to me that even some on the more ideological end of crypto see billionaire executives and VCs spending money on politicians and go "yes, good, they're fighting for me" While some have indeed chosen to align with those executives, either believing what they say about fighting for broad crypto freedoms or in apparent hopes of trickle-down policies that will benefit them too, others recognize that executives fighting to install politicians they think will help their businesses are well divorced from their own interests. Even some of the wealthy and powerful in the space, such as Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, have noted that the industry’s priorities seem misplaced, focusing far more on money than on related and important political issues around freedom and privacy that the industry claims to champion.
The average cryptocurrency holder — those people who make up the majority of the “52 million” or “18 million” or whatever the actual number of holders may be — is not likely to be a single-issue voter. Many people who hold crypto — a group, I will note, of which I am a part!e — probably don’t identify as crypto advocates at all. They’re worried about the climate, or their right to own firearms, or the safety and support of transgender people, or the various wars and genocides playing out across the globe with the support of the United States, or reducing corporate taxes, or their ability to obtain an abortion or retain access to contraceptives, or access to school vouchers, or any of the many other issues that factor in when people choose which candidates to support and oppose. Because we are wanting of any proper survey data, I am left to merely hazard an informed guess that few crypto holders (self-identified advocates or otherwise) are willing to set aside all of their other political beliefs and priorities in favor of a candidate’s crypto stance. Regardless of the caricatures that have emerged, most cryptocurrency holders are pretty normal people, with nuanced political beliefs and hopes for the future that go far beyond the tokens they hold in their digital wallets.
29 Jul 2024 at 23:07 | Open on hachyderm.io
Molly White

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#CitationNeeded #crypto #CryptoLobby #USpolitics #USpol

29 Jul 2024 at 23:08 | Open on hachyderm.io
Mark Kraft

@molly0xfff Of course, crypto is increasingly the ONLY way for Russian individuals and companies to complete purchases with China, etc.

A recent article says that about 80% of Russian transactions to China in yuan are blocked now, due to Western pressure and a crackdown on smaller banks, based near the border. As long as Russian crypto exchanges remain a thing, crypto itself is at significant risk of disruption.

29 Jul 2024 at 23:12 | Open on mastodon.social
Michał "rysiek" Woźniak · 🇺🇦

@molly0xfff fun fact that I think might be a tiny bit related (in the sense of the push that is happening behind the curtain): a recently-signed bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Poland seems to contain a weird, completely out of place paragraph about how blockchain technology improves transparency and trust in government or something to that effect. :thaenkin:

29 Jul 2024 at 23:08 | Open on mstdn.social
Taco Blacc

@molly0xfff

That the type of politicians actually courting crypto types are the same ones who think finance in general should be less regulated and are beloved by billionaires should give anyone with any remaining hope in crypto pause.

Really it should've died after Silk Road did. It's just speculative circle jerk looking for a bigger sucker to be left holding the bag. Day trading for people who own multiple Funko Pops.

29 Jul 2024 at 23:16 | Open on kolektiva.social
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