Furthermore, the supposed number of crypto holders...

Furthermore, the supposed number of crypto holders (“52 million”!) that companies like Coinbase like to throw around come largely from a poorly-designed survey with methodology its designers seem unwilling to disclose, and are vastly higher than other estimates.

#CitationNeeded #crypto #CryptoLobby #USpolitics #USpol

The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, which is behind the Stand With Crypto advocacy group and super PAC [I62], loves to trot out the figure: “52 million Americans own crypto”. This would suggest that more than 20% of adult Americans hold crypto. Other even higher figures have been presented, including those as large as 100 million — or more than 1/3 of the adult population. The thinking goes: if such a large proportion of Americans own crypto, surely they will support crypto-friendly candidates at the ballot box.c

The number is, however, highly dubious.

The 52 million figure comes from a 2023 Coinbase-funded survey by Morning Consult that dramatically contradicts other surveys, such as a report from the Federal Reserve7 that found that only 7% of adultsd had engaged in any use of cryptocurrency that year (including buying or holding), and, furthermore, that that figure was shrinking. The Fed survey also notes that their number may skew high because the survey was conducted online.

Table 21. Cryptocurrency use
Type of use 2021 2022 2023
Bought cryptocurrency or held
as an investment 11 8 7
Used cryptocurrency to buy
something or make a payment 2 2 1
Used cryptocurrency to send money to friends or family 1 2 1
Any use of cryptocurrency 12 10 7
Note: Among all adults. Respondents could select multiple answers.

Statistician David Marker recently opined in an interview with Jake Donoghue:

“This survey has not provided enough information to refute claims of it being low quality and spurious. [Morning Consult] hasn’t presented evidence to make you feel comfortable… with a survey which was funded by an organization which would like and benefit from these results.”

Marker then noted his concerns that there may have been a serious sampling flaw in Morning Consult’s survey that, if it exists, would invalidate the numbers entirely. Though Donoghue was able to discuss the survey with Morning Consult, they stopped responding when he asked about their sampling and methodology, and never responded to his follow-up inquiries.

Like 29 Jul 2024 at 23:06 | Open on hachyderm.io

2 comments

Molly White

Regardless of the caricatures that have emerged, most cryptocurrency holders are pretty normal people, with nuanced political beliefs and hopes for the future that go far beyond the tokens they hold in their digital wallets.

#CitationNeeded #crypto #CryptoLobby #USpolitics #USpol

But it is also important to separate the bitcoin billionaires and the wealthy executives in the cryptocurrency industry from the much larger group of people that industry is claiming are mobilizing on their behalf. As I noted a few weeks ago:

(Quoted tweet): it's interesting to me that even some on the more ideological end of crypto see billionaire executives and VCs spending money on politicians and go "yes, good, they're fighting for me"

While some have indeed chosen to align with those executives, either believing what they say about fighting for broad crypto freedoms or in apparent hopes of trickle-down policies that will benefit them too, others recognize that executives fighting to install politicians they think will help their businesses are well divorced from their own interests. Even some of the wealthy and powerful in the space, such as Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, have noted that the industry’s priorities seem misplaced, focusing far more on money than on related and important political issues around freedom and privacy that the industry claims to champion.

The average cryptocurrency holder — those people who make up the majority of the “52 million” or “18 million” or whatever the actual number of holders may be — is not likely to be a single-issue voter. Many people who hold crypto — a group, I will note, of which I am a part!e — probably don’t identify as crypto advocates at all. They’re worried about the climate, or their right to own firearms, or the safety and support of transgender people, or the various wars and genocides playing out across the globe with the support of the United States, or reducing corporate taxes, or their ability to obtain an abortion or retain access to contraceptives, or access to school vouchers, or any of the many other issues that factor in when people choose which candidates to support and oppose.

Because we are wanting of any proper survey data, I am left to merely hazard an informed guess that few crypto holders (self-identified advocates or otherwise) are willing to set aside all of their other political beliefs and priorities in favor of a candidate’s crypto stance. Regardless of the caricatures that have emerged, most cryptocurrency holders are pretty normal people, with nuanced political beliefs and hopes for the future that go far beyond the tokens they hold in their digital wallets.

29 Jul 2024 at 23:07 | Open on hachyderm.io

Molly White

If you found this post valuable, consider signing up for a pay-what-you-want subscription.

My writing is never paywalled, and your support goes long way to helping me continue doing this. You can also sign up for free to get my writing in your email.

https://www.citationneeded.news/signup/

#CitationNeeded #crypto #CryptoLobby #USpolitics #USpol

29 Jul 2024 at 23:08 | Open on hachyderm.io

Go Up