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Top-level
 You mean, what soft power can we leverage to make it inconvenient for Apple to pursue its gatekeeping strategy. I also like that you basically say "Apple should figure out how to hold Europeans hostage to get whatever it wants" As for the EU, first understand what the EU is and does: https://www.baldurbjarnason.com/2024/facing-reality-in-the-eu-and-tech/ 5 comments
Thank you for this very detailed and measured response! I could argue or disagree with some minor points, but that would not be productive. The only "big" disagreement I have is "if Apple withholds services in compliance with the law" in that this assumption rests on Apples claims. And we've already seen in the past how Apple reversed course after making similar claims. But yeah, it truly is a huge weird bet, so we'll need a lot of popcorn to watch how it plays out.  @mark @dmitriid @stevestreza Apple, like us, has historical evidence that Google prefers to follow Apple than compete. Android is not very different than iOS. Apple may even have personal relationships or contracts that make Google’s position more likely to be that of follower than competitor. Google could surprise us all though. EU regulations certainly give Google reason to break with Apple’s direction and I would hope they’d capitalise on it if Apple withheld features in EU. @mark @dmitriid @stevestreza I think Apple is not risking much by _threatening_ to withhold features: they can change their mind at any time, so small competitors would be taking a big risk trying to compete in those areas and Google will be competing anyway. They do risk confusing and annoying EU customers, but I guess they think the sabre-rattling helps negotiations with the EU or they’re doing it to manage stock market expectations. @callionica @mark @stevestreza I doubt that Google is institutionally capable of doing anything in this regard. Ads are their only revenue source, and this permeates every decision they make. Add to that the many internal warring factions, and you get a surprisingly disfunctional company that shifts directions almost every year. |
Gregory's Server
@dmitriid @stevestreza If Apple cuts off services in compliance with the law, is it Apple holding EU citizens hostage, EU citizens holding themselves hostage (i.e. "They saw this law coming; why didn't they distance themselves from Apple's ecosystem and find alternatives?"), or EU's regulators holding citizens hostage?
I think Apple is betting there's more than one answer to the question.
(To be clear: it's a huge, weird bet and I respect the opinion that the starting-gate position should have been "Don't do that." But I've been watching governments regulate the Internet long enough to also not accept the premise that regulators are always right in what citizens want or need. It'll be interesting to see how this sifts out).
FTA:
No disagreement there. But I also observe that Apple is under no obligation to be aligned with that goal (over, say, strengthening and regularizing a global marketplace that simplifies the creation of Apple's products by requiring fewer special cases).
The EC has identified six gatekeepers, zero of which are European companies. This specific move is pretty naked protectionism (which, to be clear, is well within the EU's purview). Apple is making an... Interesting decision by saying "Okay, we play ball. You're protected. Someone else, we're sure, will backfill the products and services we provide."
(ETA: What I find most interesting in all of this is that Alphabet is also a gatekeeper company and, AFAIK, they are playing ball. So Apple is really betting that their offering is so good that people won't jump ship to Android, which is more-or-less "right over there" from a consumer perspective.
Will that bet work? I'll be interested to see).
@dmitriid @stevestreza If Apple cuts off services in compliance with the law, is it Apple holding EU citizens hostage, EU citizens holding themselves hostage (i.e. "They saw this law coming; why didn't they distance themselves from Apple's ecosystem and find alternatives?"), or EU's regulators holding citizens hostage?