Thank you for this very detailed and measured response!
I could argue or disagree with some minor points, but that would not be productive.
The only "big" disagreement I have is "if Apple withholds services in compliance with the law" in that this assumption rests on Apples claims. And we've already seen in the past how Apple reversed course after making similar claims.
But yeah, it truly is a huge weird bet, so we'll need a lot of popcorn to watch how it plays out.