Email or username:

Password:

Forgot your password?
All posts 🎓 Dr. Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱's posts Post Back to profile
Top-level
Louis Ingenthron

@freemo The significance of a vote for a candidate that cannot win is zero.

So, a vote for one of the main parties is, by definition, more significant, even if it's literally one in a hundred million.

28 March at 0:01 | Wall-to-wall | Open on qoto.org
10 comments
🎓 Dr. Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

@LouisIngenthron

> The significance of a vote for a candidate that cannot win is zero.

That isnt the reality, and is a oversimplification to game the system.

You can argue it has a much LOWER chance of winning. but not 0... Based on historical data the chance of a third-party candidate winning an election or coming in second place (and thus becoming a primary party in the future) in any one year is ~7% , something like 3% for the chance of actually winning.

That isnt 0, it is low. But pushing for something with a low chance, that is far better for everyone, and having 50x the impact in doing so Is a very good trade IMO.

Also, what is the point of voting for a primary candidate when your chance of your vote having **any** meaning at all is 0.00000001%.. not voting would have no impact of any kind, so why bother, where voting third party has a 50x impact and even when loosing that impact has quantifiable gains (unlike with the major party).

@LouisIngenthron

> The significance of a vote for a candidate that cannot win is zero.

That isnt the reality, and is a oversimplification to game the system.

You can argue it has a much LOWER chance of winning. but not 0... Based on historical data the chance of a third-party candidate winning an election or coming in second place (and thus becoming a primary party in the future) in any one year is ~7% , something like 3% for the chance of actually winning.

28 March at 0:05 | Open on qoto.org
Louis Ingenthron

@freemo That 3% is an average driven entirely by major outliers. The bottom line is, without the right combination of external conditions in place, the possibility of a third party finishing first in a FPTP system is effectively zero.

Primaries have different systems, but those that are FPTP do have the exact same dynamics I described above.

28 March at 0:11 | Open on qoto.org
🎓 Dr. Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

@LouisIngenthron

> That 3% is an average driven entirely by major outliers.

So? Its still the reality chance of it happening, 0 is not. Full stop.

> The bottom line is, without the right combination of external conditions in place, the possibility of a third party finishing first in a FPTP system is effectively zero.

Yup, and the chance of those conditions existing in any one year, and you personally making a significant impact to allow that to happen is statistically **hugely** more likely if you vote for a third party than a primary. Primary the chance of your vote making a difference is many orders of magnitude lower than when voting for a third party.

So again regardless of who wins, why would anyone bother to vote for a third party when their vote makes no difference at all? When with a third party it does, at many orders of magnitude higher. Isnt the point of voting to make a positive difference?

@LouisIngenthron

> That 3% is an average driven entirely by major outliers.

So? Its still the reality chance of it happening, 0 is not. Full stop.

> The bottom line is, without the right combination of external conditions in place, the possibility of a third party finishing first in a FPTP system is effectively zero.

28 March at 0:16 | Open on qoto.org
Louis Ingenthron

@freemo
> So? Its still the reality chance of it happening, 0 is not. Full stop.

In a vacuum, sure. But in the real world, we can look around and see that those external factors are not present this year.

> Isnt the point of voting to make a positive difference?

No, it's to reduce harm. And by throwing away your vote for an impossible candidate, you give up your opportunity to reduce harm.

28 March at 0:23 | Open on qoto.org
🎓 Dr. Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

@LouisIngenthron Incorrect.. in fact not only are the factors present (a great deal of dissasifaction with major parties, and each party acting acts its majorieis primary ideals and interests)... but more importantly as I've covered before third-party take overs always happen suddenly and unexpectedly. They were **always** <1% support before the election and switch to a majority support over the course of only a single election.

> No, it's to reduce harm. And by throwing away your vote for an impossible candidate, you give up your opportunity to reduce harm.

How can you reduce harm if your vote has absolutely no impact on the outcome of any kind? Cant reduce harm if your screaming into the wind doing nothing.

@LouisIngenthron Incorrect.. in fact not only are the factors present (a great deal of dissasifaction with major parties, and each party acting acts its majorieis primary ideals and interests)... but more importantly as I've covered before third-party take overs always happen suddenly and unexpectedly. They were **always** <1% support before the election and switch to a majority support over the course of only a single election.

28 March at 0:26 | Open on qoto.org
admitsWrongIfProven

@LouisIngenthron @freemo So, by definition, if the major parties are not ok, the world is doomed and nothing should be done?

28 March at 0:29 | Open on qoto.org
🎓 Dr. Freemo :jpf: 🇳🇱

@admitsWrongIfProven

When Stalin and Hitler are up for election make sure you keep voting for Stalin, its the only way to make things better!

@LouisIngenthron

28 March at 0:30 | Open on qoto.org
Reach for the Stars :verified:

@LouisIngenthron @freemo So my relatives who live in states where polls say Biden has no better chance of winning than a third party candidate should vote for Trump because "The significance of a vote for a candidate that cannot win is zero"?

28 March at 0:49 | Open on qoto.org
admitsWrongIfProven

@LouisIngenthron @freemo You are basically saying if the general environment says something, you cannot even try to resist.
There is always the option to renounce the powers that hold you, to deny their righteousness.

The narrative told is not automatically true. Sometimes, you just live in a world of lies. Embrace it. Call the people attacking you enemies. They cannot do any worse to you than they already do.

28 March at 1:22 | Open on qoto.org
Go Up