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Top-level
 @freemo That 3% is an average driven entirely by major outliers. The bottom line is, without the right combination of external conditions in place, the possibility of a third party finishing first in a FPTP system is effectively zero. Primaries have different systems, but those that are FPTP do have the exact same dynamics I described above. 3 comments
@freemo In a vacuum, sure. But in the real world, we can look around and see that those external factors are not present this year. > Isnt the point of voting to make a positive difference? No, it's to reduce harm. And by throwing away your vote for an impossible candidate, you give up your opportunity to reduce harm. |
Gregory's Server
@LouisIngenthron
> That 3% is an average driven entirely by major outliers.
So? Its still the reality chance of it happening, 0 is not. Full stop.
> The bottom line is, without the right combination of external conditions in place, the possibility of a third party finishing first in a FPTP system is effectively zero.
Yup, and the chance of those conditions existing in any one year, and you personally making a significant impact to allow that to happen is statistically **hugely** more likely if you vote for a third party than a primary. Primary the chance of your vote making a difference is many orders of magnitude lower than when voting for a third party.
So again regardless of who wins, why would anyone bother to vote for a third party when their vote makes no difference at all? When with a third party it does, at many orders of magnitude higher. Isnt the point of voting to make a positive difference?
@LouisIngenthron
> That 3% is an average driven entirely by major outliers.
So? Its still the reality chance of it happening, 0 is not. Full stop.
> The bottom line is, without the right combination of external conditions in place, the possibility of a third party finishing first in a FPTP system is effectively zero.