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Esther is looking for a server

Here’s a prediction: there will not be “the next Twitter”. The era of the one place where “everyone” is has ended. (And it has never been “everyone”, just everyone who the people already there thought was relevant).

Under capitalism this model of the one place was always doomed to fail. It just lasted for an unusually long time due to lucky coincidences. Any further capital-driven attempts will fail much faster because more people can recognize the cracks earlier now.

Community-driven social networks will always have fragmentation and more friction, regardless of how many features and affordances are built. There’s always going to be social fault lines along different needs and priorities of different groups. This is inherently human and incompatible with a singular shared space that hosts “everyone”.

56 comments
Toby Inkster

@esther
Twitter was never that big to begin with. WhatsApp has four times the number of active users, and WhatsApp is only Meta's second most successful platform.

Mondgesicht

@tobyink @esther Yeah, but Twitter had impact. The media was using Twitter as source and output.

Reinald Kirchner

@esther I can recall times, when every site had it's own phpBB script running, and a local community. Very specialized communities, with sometimes very high competencies (like engineering in specific branches). Facebook groups and successors rarely got that quality.
Maybe that is coming back again?

F. Maury ⏚

@Reinald @esther And before that, the newsgroups with even more specialized and talented people :)

cronomorfo

@Reinald

@esther
I would really like to see true inheritors to 90's and 00's forums. But I think this is an age of prepackaged solutions and managing and modding forum-like stuff is too hard.

Probably Discord will become bigger and that will be the end of it.

Bo Stahlbrandt

@Reinald @esther some of them never disappeared and are active and successful since eg +20 years. Often super-niche. It is all about the people that are creating and sustaining their #community. Platforms and underlying tech is only part of it.

Reinald Kirchner

@stahlbrandt @esther I recall a lot of them dying when the used script package phpBB was dying and vulnerable and a spam-target. Most migrations basically failed, since amateur admins had not enough time and knowledge to do it properly.

Nice to hear that some of those communities survived nevertheless.

Bo Stahlbrandt

@Reinald @esther right, spamming was definitely an issue for many. Time spent to operate and maintain a #community platform should definitely not be underestimated. Here is a big, fundamental issue hidden: Most members are not willing to pay for using it, leaving the operation very vulnerable and often forced to use whatever packages they can find without having the resources required to keep its #IT and dev aspects professional “enough”. In old times, some could live on ad revenue. That is very likely no longer possible for a large majority.

@Reinald @esther right, spamming was definitely an issue for many. Time spent to operate and maintain a #community platform should definitely not be underestimated. Here is a big, fundamental issue hidden: Most members are not willing to pay for using it, leaving the operation very vulnerable and often forced to use whatever packages they can find without having the resources required to keep its #IT and dev aspects professional “enough”. In old times, some could live on ad revenue. That is very...

Mondgesicht

@esther I guess you're right. I'm curious/anxious/excited/terrified to see what's next.

This inspired thoughts for me:
We need nodes. Knotenpunkte to collect important intel from the various outputs. Maybe Newsblogs are coming back. Or something else.

Rich Felker

@esther It's not that "everyone" waa there, but that almost any group you could define had some member there, ready to pass information either direction in the event of major happenings where it mattered.

Replicating that doesn't even need "one place"; that was just the only way to get it under a regime where platform owners actively prevent communication without joining & submitting to them. But all it needs is a shared medium people can communicate across and self-organize.

Sibachian

@dalias @esther Once Mastodon launches Groups later this year, it could really be a universal replacement for nearly any popular social media platform imo. Depending on how well Groups work.

nev

@esther maybe not every human on earth needs to use the same website, you know?

Lee 🌏

@esther
Capitalism always leads to monopolies. I hope this is different.
I personally can't understand why people remain on Twitter, if they are in the centre or left politically.

Kit

@esther It doesn't even have to be a "one size fits all" platform. I'm all for decentralized structures.

But it would be nice to channel them together somehow to make it more easily accessible. Like RSS, but for social media.

Hein Ragas

@esther Twitter was the product of unique circumstances, which we will never be able to replicate again. I mourn its loss.

Can Mete

@esther It was a very valuable assessment. But you seem to forget about people's interest in what's popular. Mastodon could become a new 'Temporary Twitter' once it has achieved enough popularity.

immibis
@esther sadly I think it will be bluesky. People are stupid.
DELETED

@esther Could be twitter's future depends on a radical fascistic core of 'power users' to coerce others into an uncomfortable cult-like devotion to Elon Musk, including 'loyal opposition' of dissenters, with a certain underpinning belief everything outside of his starship is certain doom because there's no air to breathe (relevance, that is, metaphorically). He's already paranoid about bots, AI, etc.--the non-living entities outside his craft--and that influences his policies. It's a bad trip.

JJ

@esther Twitter sucked. I never liked it, most people I know didn't use it. Everyone's on #TikTok now.

Esther is looking for a server

@JJ1 another case where “everyone” refers to a fairly specific and snall subset of actually everyone

Carnivius

@JJ1 @esther everyone's on tiktok? :O

Never had an account there myself.

inaktiv

@esther "Under capitalism this model of the one place was always doomed to fail. It just lasted for an unusually long time due to lucky coincidences." this is a contradiction

Jesse Baer 🔥

@esther The reason Twitter was always more vulnerable than it seemed is because the value didn't require *everyone* being there. It required *enough* people being there. And there are enough people to go around, for a bunch of spaces to thrive. The One Big Place is the internet itself.

Monica Heilman 지혜

@esther This is pretty much a long version of what you're saying, with some consideration of ads, AI & profit added:
theverge.com/2023/7/3/23782607

Groms

@esther let s get back to the good old email listserv mailinglists
! Indepth discussions rhere decades ago...

👩‍🦯The Blind Fraggle

@esther Actually community and interest-driven sites is how it used to be, then Facebook, and I guess Myspace came along and suddenly you just had to hope what you liked to talk about was popular enough. I feel like this is just going back to the older, better way.

🇳𝗮ꜟ𝖼𝘩

@Fragglemuppet @esther I think it's probably a good thing if you have to put a bit of effort into joining a social network and setting it up. Fewer trolls for a start.

Esther is looking for a server

@Naich @Fragglemuppet can’t confirm that. The Fediverse has plenty of those and they can be very intense. A well moderated server will help a lot but a lot of popular servers really are not that.

Kaye

@esther Also interesting to note that "everyone* is on the same platform" was really a phenomenon of the 2010s, it wasn't true in the 2000s (web forum/webring era) and it needn't be true in the 2020s

THOMnottom

@esther I think you're right on the first part (no next "place to be") and hope you're right on the second part (people/community drives the way).

Loukas Christodoulou

@esther maybe in parallel to how there will not be "the next superpower" to replace USA since the unique conditions won't occur again.

Maija

@esther
Fragmentation is also _desirable_, isn't it? I mean, who really wants celebrities to dominate everything?

Esther is looking for a server

@MaijaB yes, i think it is. But a lot of people will disgree on that gor various reasons

Maija

@esther
Yes, they will. But who's to say that someone strong interest in popular culture is more or less valuable to them than someone else's interest in activism and justice. I prefer to see spaces where one doesn't drown out the other. I think most of us do. As you pointed out, fragmentation in our social spheres is natural. And it thrives on real diversity. If others disagree, that's fine; they don't own the place.

joel b

@esther Social networks are like flowers in nature. They germinate, grow, bloom, and die. This has always been the case since the early days of the internet.

The difference is when you pump a bunch of capital, marketing strategy, and media coverage into one it can grow very fast, very large, and kept lumbering about long after its natural death should have happened. Despite all these tricks nature will still take its course.

Siguza

@esther I wouldn't be quite so optimistic about "people can recognise the cracks". There's a lot of grifters who *want* an algorithm to game and all that bullshit, and many of them have quite a large following. About 70-80% of my tech bubble moved to Mastodon once Elon took over. But the artists and content creators I was following? And all of their followers? Nada.

Sibachian

@esther it's a nice dream. except, I am BEYOND tired of having 833736 chat clients installed after XMPP got defederated from both google and facebook some years back.

as much as you may wish for this decentralized hegemony of choice. I have... frankly... Had enough. It especially doesn't help that ALL but one of these stupid clients are built on electron. I die a little inside whenever I have to touch electron.

Esther is looking for a server

@Beiz i didn’t say anything about what I personally wish

immibis
@Beiz @esther this is not the fault of the XMPP client. Pidgin supported many protocols, including IRC, XMPP, MSN, AIM, etc, all in one client. It's rather the problem that *Discord* chose to segregate itself from open source integration. As for Matrix? looks like Pidgin supports that.
Stefan

@esther a+ take and so succinct and we'll put.

Syd 🇪🇺

@esther People are essentially sheeple. They want to be where everyone else is. FOMO is a very strong driving force.
Logically FB should be dead and buried by now, it's a cesspit, but people still use it because they might miss out otherwise.
People will always look for and be drawn towards "the" place to be.
Blue sky, Threads, Mastodon will almost certainly not replace Twitter for this very reason.
Unless Musk actually burns it to the ground. 🤔

Panicky_Patzer

@esther you have a lot more faith in humanity than I do. I hope you’re right.

xananax

@esther @Bobbins definitely an interesting take but I think you dismiss too easily network effects. There always was even more friction and tension (early networks had UX that required more learning), but people dealt with it to be together.

E.g, I abhor the idea of bluesky but if several of my friends are there I might create an account while sighing in desperation.

Judith Pakosinski

@esther
What I will miss about Twitter was the use local governments made to alert users of closed roads, detoured transit, forest fires, tsunamis, storm warnings. Mastodon is not built for that purpose.
I can find interesting people to follow here: economists, historians, civil rights activists, climate scientists, animal researchers, Rabbis, poets, map aficionados, etc,.
This place will provide many niches. We have to help build it.

Clinton Anderson SwordForHire

@esther There wasn't even close to "everyone" on Twitter.....

It was never "the town square" despite all the talking heads who did their level best to big it up.

David's Alias

@esther
I've noticed that a singular authority just *cannot* maintain a social media because they don't have the manpower to do so for such a large world. I think the federated approach we have scales with the community as it grows, as it allows a very dynamic environment which is overall beneficial to everyone.

With different rulings and different needs, with shifting cultures and changing opinions, the divide and conquer solution feels like the best way to go about managing a community. Pretty resilient to corruption too; if an instance gets bought out or if someone gets replaced, and it gets mishandled, other instances can take action to protect themselves.

@esther
I've noticed that a singular authority just *cannot* maintain a social media because they don't have the manpower to do so for such a large world. I think the federated approach we have scales with the community as it grows, as it allows a very dynamic environment which is overall beneficial to everyone.

Stormcupine

@esther I'm more than happy to see the "one place where everyone is" collapse.

Go back to when we had a large diverse array of sites rather than everything being dominated by one or two platforms.

Bring back sites with distinct communities.

Drop the corporate dominion over our lives.

Also, I wish every site would stop copying the Twitter layout.

The "Twitter-dominated" era of the Internet was a mistake in general, I'm sick of it, and will be glad to see it gone.

Matei Matthias Covrigus 🥨

@esther
Damn it!
Now in need to enter news websites to be updated on news??
This is so 2009!

Genders: ♾️, 🟪⬛🟩; Soni L.

@esther if ppl want "everyone" on the same platform:

start with fedi.

then bolt on multihoming and an effective way to hide it from admins. (let's call this "opaque federation".)

(but you know nobody wants this because nobody has made it happen.)

LivingCode

@esther everything else would be rather creepy

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