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Kevin Rothrock

The Foreign Ministry seems to be running with the HIMARS explanation, while other Russian officials have leaned on “sabotage.” (The latter scenario — explosives planted inside — is more plausible from a structural POV, but neither is impossible or mutually exclusive.)

11 Jun 2023 at 4:39 | Open on infosec.exchange
9 comments
Anders Puck Nielsen

@kevinrothrock It’s MH-17 all over again. I think we should be careful about feeding the narrative that so many things are technically possible that it’s impossible to ever know the truth.

11 Jun 2023 at 5:48 | Open on krigskunst.social
Loukas Christodoulou

@anderspuck @kevinrothrock i wrote this just after the full-scale invasion and I stand by it in this case as well. If Ukrainian authorities have caused this mass flooding then journalists independent or critical of the Zelensky government will be eager to reveal it.

;?% Loukas Christodoulou O @Loukas doula There's a temptation to 'both sides' the information coming out of Ukraine and out of Russia. | trust that from Ukraine more. You know why? Because Ukraine is *swarming* with independent and foreign journalists. In Russia independent journalists are mostly dead or in prison.
11 Jun 2023 at 5:52 | Open on mastodon.nu
Kevin Rothrock

@Loukas @anderspuck The Russian MID is admittedly citing an interview given to the WaPo by a Ukrainian general. The dam itself is off limits to journalists.

11 Jun 2023 at 6:07 | Open on infosec.exchange
Osma A

@kevinrothrock @Loukas @anderspuck

Recalling the referred article in WaPo, because of sourcing an context

"Kharkiv gave the Ukrainians a chance to push on an open door. Kherson presented a solid wall."
...
"The American and British war-gamers ran their own simulations using the same inputs but different software and analysis. They couldn’t get the operation to work."

washingtonpost.com/world/2022/

@kevinrothrock @Loukas @anderspuck

Recalling the referred article in WaPo, because of sourcing an context

"Kharkiv gave the Ukrainians a chance to push on an open door. Kherson presented a solid wall."
...
"The American and British war-gamers ran their own simulations using the same inputs but different software and analysis. They couldn’t get the operation to work."

11 Jun 2023 at 7:12 | Open on mas.to
Osma A

@kevinrothrock @Loukas @anderspuck

“There were moments when we turned off their supply lines completely, and they still managed to build crossings,” Kovalchuk said. “They managed to replenish ammunition. … It was very difficult.”

"Kovalchuk considered flooding the river."

washingtonpost.com/world/2022/

11 Jun 2023 at 7:13 | Open on mas.to
Osma A

@kevinrothrock @Loukas @anderspuck

"Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages."

"The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off."

washingtonpost.com/world/2022/

@kevinrothrock @Loukas @anderspuck

"Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages."

11 Jun 2023 at 7:14 | Open on mas.to
Osma A

@kevinrothrock @Loukas @anderspuck

There were a number of strikes documented against all the bridges there over last summer and latter part of the year. I was trying to find a satellite image of the bridge destruction I recall, but what I found was this image from the opposite end of the dam from where it actually collapsed now.

kyivindependent.com/satellite-

This refers to the other bridges, but doesn't have images.

ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/35361

@kevinrothrock @Loukas @anderspuck

There were a number of strikes documented against all the bridges there over last summer and latter part of the year. I was trying to find a satellite image of the bridge destruction I recall, but what I found was this image from the opposite end of the dam from where it actually collapsed now.

View of damage to the Nova Kakhovka dam on Nov.11, 2022. (Maxar Technologies)
11 Jun 2023 at 7:23 | Open on mas.to
Osma A

I was just watching Ryan McBeth on YouTube and he's attributing that north end spillway/bridge damage to Russians around Nov 12th, as well as showing some satellite imagery I hadn't seen before from March to June this year, suggesting structural failure.

youtu.be/6z4rhBKTT5U

@kevinrothrock @Loukas @anderspuck
@t_mkdf
@chowderman

11 Jun 2023 at 8:15 | Open on mas.to
Osma A

Ryan's video (link in previous) was curious enough that I took a closer look at the satellite images he purchased and shared. Cropped & annotated versions attached. It certainly looks like the dam may not have needed a detonation to collapse - it may have simply spilled over due to neglicence!
#NovaKakhovka #KakhovkaDam
@kevinrothrock @Loukas @anderspuck @t_mkdf @chowderman

March 3rd, Nova Kakhovka dam Water level still manageable, one sluice gate open. Damage at the north end of the bridge shows no effect on the dam itself. Minimal turbulence downstream of power plant: no power being generated?
June 1st, Nova Kakhovka dam Much higher water level, downstream turbulence showing signs that there may be some spillover across the entire row of sluice gates. This would be when the gates MUST be opened to avoid a catastrophe - but all but one remain closed
June 2nd, Nova Kakhovka dam Definite spillover across the entire concrete dam section. The bridge section northwest of power plant building has collapsed - turbulent water has eaten away its foundation? Waterline upsream of the shipping channel is WAY up.
June 6h, Nova Kakhovka dam Over half of the concrete section with the sluice gates and power plant has collapsed under water. Downstream earthworks protecting the shipping channel flooded and/or eroded away. Upstream earthen dam remains intact, water line much lower than it was 4 days earlier.
12 Jun 2023 at 12:37 | Open on mas.to
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