Gregory's Server@darius I do find it frustrating to come across uncalibrated estimation routines; to see someone "correctly predict twenty of the last eight bot nets"
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@darius it's a cliche/joke in macroeconomics to say someone's predicted twelve of the last three recessions. The Rainmakers branch of the Frauds Family Tree.  @bgawalt oh I was just wondering if someone claimed in a paper to predict 20/8 botnets because I would believe it @darius i dont read many papers any more, but by happy coincidence, the last one i read *was* about bot detection: OpenAI's "did this text from from ChatGPT" classifier. And they genuinely and helpfully *did* break their results into both false-positive and false-negative rates, rather than hiding behind the more typical reporting of "it is a classifer" or "it has 99% accuracy [on a dataset with 98:2 class imbalance]". |
@bgawalt is that a thing that happened??