I guess #Bluesky must be in heavy fundraising mode by now if my math is in the right ballpark about how much they raised and their burn rate.
Will they be successful? At what valuation? An interesting question! I figure their valuation could be anywhere between $0 and a few billions or so.
Why $0? No business model, and no obvious one on the horizon. Intense competition with the new product of the biggest incumbent that's already at 20x their size.
Why a few billions? ... (cont'd)
Why might #Bluesky be worth a few billions? Decentralized social has the potential to "amazon" (here's a word you haven't heard in a while...) the trillion-dollar market cap social media platform market like Amazon "amazoned" Borders 25 years ago. In this thinking, it's completely early days and lack of biz model and current market shares don't matter.
Supporting evidence: Farcaster recently raised $150m at $1b valuation with far fewer users.
(cont'd)