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bhahne

@infobeautiful The IEA has been notorious for wildly underestimating solar growth in its forecasts. What's pathetic is how they did so year after year after year. There's some kind of strong institutional anti-PV bias within the IEA.

3 September at 21:00 | Wall-to-wall | Open on mastodon.online
3 comments
bhahne

@infobeautiful Vox covered this IEA problem 9 (!) years ago, so it's been going on for a long time:
vox.com/2015/10/12/9510879/iea

"The International Energy Agency consistently underestimates wind and solar power. Why?"

3 September at 21:35 | Open on mastodon.online
Marius

@bhahne @infobeautiful
The simple answer might be that the IEA's interest is mostly in forecasting the large numbers, which are still the fossil fuels. For that, it doesn't matter if PV is 0.02% or 2% of the total, both are lost in the noise. So their PV model was just a placeholder, instead of making a difficult model that would still likely be wrong.

That might not work anymore for the next decade, but it has worked for a full decade after that Vox article.

@bhahne @infobeautiful
The simple answer might be that the IEA's interest is mostly in forecasting the large numbers, which are still the fossil fuels. For that, it doesn't matter if PV is 0.02% or 2% of the total, both are lost in the noise. So their PV model was just a placeholder, instead of making a difficult model that would still likely be wrong.

4 September at 10:42 | Open on mstdn.social
Disco3000

@bhahne @infobeautiful they have been historically favorable towards nuclear so they had to compensate I guess 🤗

8 September at 5:46 | Open on climatejustice.social
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