Gregory's ServerThe world’s solar capacity reached 1,419 gigawatts in 2023, way beyond any predictions. 1 gigawatt = power for a medium sized city ☀️
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 Solar is still completely, absurdly, laughably non-viable and impractical from a simple economic standpoint here in #NewMexico.  @brianstorms @infobeautiful Sorry, meant residential solar. As for utility-scale solar, in sunlit #NewMexico, sure, you’d think this state should already be running on 100% renewables, except for one pesky detail: this state and its government is utterly and wholly captured, owned, and controlled by the oil and gas industry. My guess? NM will finally be 100% renewable once both polar icecaps are long gone and the sea levels are so high, NM is now on the west coast of what’s left of the US.  @brianstorms @maltimore @infobeautiful I don't understand. New Mexico should be great for residential solar. So why are you saying it's not economically viable? @AeonCypher @maltimore @infobeautiful It's insanely expensive. Still. @brianstorms @maltimore @infobeautiful https://www.energysage.com/local-data/solar-panel-cost/nm/ ??? Is this page wrong? Like, there's been grid parity from a TCO perspective in most of the USA for years. There is a problem that: it's a huge upfront cost, drops in price often result in demand spikes that cause delays, landlords have no incentives to install them.  @brianstorms @AeonCypher @maltimore @infobeautiful @Gurre @brianstorms @AeonCypher @maltimore @infobeautiful Yeah am also interested in why that is. In the UK it's still viable, to the extent that the government no longer provide the ability for new customers (who are not grandfathered in) to get paid to feedback to the grid as an incentive, because it makes enough sense to do for personal reasons, to reduce bills (even with high cost UK labor costs). I can imagine maybe electricity from the grid is a lot cheaper in NM than in UK (and EU)? @iaincollins @Gurre @AeonCypher @maltimore @infobeautiful Grid rates are relatively low in NM (a reason the economics of solar are hard to justify or many, I suspect) but the major utility here has a proposal before the public utility commission right now seeking to raise rates by like 40-50% which, if solar costs keep dropping, will only boost solar adoption here. Me, I wanna be off-grid asap. But I’m still waiting.  @brianstorms @AeonCypher @maltimore @infobeautiful Certainly if the system there isn't set up to give you much if you sell it back you shouldn't oversize your installation but it should still be possible, though I do see that it's got a comparatively long pay back period compared to other places, but that presumably assumes grid costs won't go up. @brianstorms @infobeautiful This needs explanation. But even if so, there's more than that viewpoint. @kurtsh @brianstorms @infobeautiful I'm also wondering if the EIA data includes rooftop solar. Here certainly rooftop solar is counted as a reduction in demand, not as a generation.  @brianstorms @infobeautiful  @infobeautiful The IEA has been notorious for wildly underestimating solar growth in its forecasts. What's pathetic is how they did so year after year after year. There's some kind of strong institutional anti-PV bias within the IEA. @infobeautiful Vox covered this IEA problem 9 (!) years ago, so it's been going on for a long time: "The International Energy Agency consistently underestimates wind and solar power. Why?" @bhahne @infobeautiful they have been historically favorable towards nuclear so they had to compensate I guess 🤗    if not for intentional destruction of energy like LLMs, AI, crypto, & NFTs, we'd be well on our way to being independent of fossil fuels for the greed & ambition of the few, we will lose the entire planet for all  @infobeautiful @infobeautiful in American Journalism Units, that's enough energy to send a DeLorean back in time 1,173 times!  I'm reminded of the growth curve for #computers. They used to be huge, million-dollar, room-filling machines, and people optimistically predicted that one day they'd be twice as fast, cost about as much as a luxury car, and be the size of a fridge. Instead, they are a zillion times as fast, cost a few days' blue-collar wages, and fit in your pocket.    @infobeautiful That line needs to be going up beyond what markets can even do for it to make a difference unfortunately Then there is the waste problem But I'm sure the market will find a solution, before time runs out :) lol  @ekis @infobeautiful By which you mean the market will steal from a publicly-funded university research team in their "finding" of a solution and repackage it. @ekis @infobeautiful modern panels can be recycled easily. Not so some types from 15-20yrs ago. Also the average lifespan is at least 2 decades @sleepy62 @infobeautiful and nuclear is not cheap. It’s the champagne of energy sources. Google Flamanville or Hinkley-Point 💸💸 and thats without a nuclear disaster then cost is xxxx times @infobeautiful impressive graph. Does anyone have a link to the source of this analysis? Did try to find at IEA w/o success. Thanks! Edit: Seems to be paywalled 🙁 https://about.bnef.com/blog/3q-2024-global-pv-market-outlook/  @infobeautiful The EU production in 2023 was 308 GW averaged. Of course not all the cells will go to the EU. But then again, the curve doesn't look like it's turning around either. @infobeautiful very similar to Cryotpcoin Bros HODLing on their stock/coins/..., because *next* year, of course, will be the breakthrough of Dogecoing (or whatever) contrary to any serious analysis, experience or prediction. It's basically a religion by now, renewables are bad, so they cannot and must not succeed.  @th @infobeautiful @cstross  @th @infobeautiful @cstross A third chart in the series might be IPCC predictions vs reality, though that one's less cheery.  @infobeautiful hopefully this will fund more research and improvement in efficiency and longevity  @infobeautiful looks like 2011 is the only year where less was installed than the year before, otherwise always growth. Nice 👍   @infobeautiful continuing that growth, by 2035 we should have that dyson sphere up and running  Ok, I'll be honest. Every time I look at one of these "2 joined dots" charts, it seems to reflect the opposite of what's claimed. Am I missing something obvious? Never mind. I've looked again and worked it out. I was missing something obvious to chart makers, but not at all clear to this particular chart observer. AFAIAC, it's a terrible way to graphically display the intended information. I want 2 plots, one above the other, showing actual and predicted for each year. Easy. @infobeautiful I’m assuming that 1,000 GW is 1 TW, and according to https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-demand?tab=table The 2023 world demand is (at least) 29,500 TW (actually TWh; unsure of unit conversion/equivalency). So, solar capacity is currently at about 5% (rounding, and assuming I am understanding correctly; corrections welcome). @amsiix @infobeautiful yes, but they predicted much less then 1% so the adoption rate and especially the projections are based on the same false assumptions. If the real world trend continues the 2030 figures will be much much higher @infobeautiful esto es #turbocapitalismo en su máxima expresión y no tiene nada de verde pero si de sostemible  @infobeautiful And the predictions are still off every fucking year. They never get it that we are in the exponential growth phase. |
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