@baldur another factor I have observed is that COVID and lockdown changed people's attitudes toward how much nonsense they are willing to tolerate. this has an impact both on projects and the software itself.
projects previously got away with onerous procedures and odious personalities being involved in the contribution process. people won't slog through it now.
the change in user attitudes has, for the most part, not been matched by a deeper focus on QoL bugsquashing and low-friction UX.
@baldur the demographic who are deeply invested in FOSS as a philosophy are generally still willing to make that trade, as they always have done. in practice, however, the majority of users are more casual fans of FOSS, who will seek out alternatives more quickly when things frustrate them, and who will accept commercial alternatives that are more comfortable to use. when the bar for frustration shifts, but the design philosophy of the software does not move to match, those users leave.