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Fiona Gregory

This is the most amazing interactive map I have come across lately. The interface is simple. Put in a city and see what other place it will be most like in climate in 60 years, when today's children will be seniors, at current rates of carbon burning. The results are shocking - completely different biomes. Then you can compare that with what happens if we reduce emissions. fitzlab.shinyapps.io/cityapp

screenshot of app in action. A map and an arrow pointing from one place to another.
48 comments
InsertUser

@fionag11

My first click gave:
"Future climate for this location is expected to be unlike anything currently found anywhere on Earth, so there are no climate matches for this location."

Well why have a dot for it then?
No description, no nothing?

InsertUser

@relet @fionag11

I think it means that their database has problems. It was very close to another place with a similar climate that has an answer.

But the second part of not even describing the prediction is just a poor implementation.

Thomas Hirsch

@InsertUser
@fionag11

Okay, thanks. I got the same answer for most of the already hot places, so I figured they just change into something not yet experienced.

I guess you get the same message then if the combination of climate factors really just doesn't match.

InsertUser

@relet @fionag11

It was a hot place, but it wasn't the hottest of places. Points in every direction had answers.

But them refusing to even say what the conditions will be after giving that message seems counterproductive.

Matti Järvinen

@InsertUser @relet @fionag11 well there are places that will become unhabitable.

InsertUser

@nemeciii @relet @fionag11
I refer you to the second paragraph of my last three posts in this thread.

Tip

@relet

Yep. You're screwed. I got the same for my home, Bangkok.

@InsertUser @fionag11

Karel Brits 💬

@InsertUser I got the same thing for my second click. I'm wondering if their app isn't centered around western countries. Is there enough knowledge available about for example the African continent? If you get a result there it mentions the winters won't be any drier, but the 'winters' is in some countries the raining season. Are those getting wetter? That's the question I'm expecting to get an answer to. @fionag11

InsertUser

@karelbrits @fionag11
IIRC the research looked like it was originally based in the US cities.

I get that that there may be places where the output of the model doesn't entirely match another place. But when they do a match they then give an explanation of the change. I don't get why they can't do an explanation of the change if there's no match. They must have the data, it's what they used for matching.

It doesn't really explain the matching method well either so, what variables are matched?

@karelbrits @fionag11
IIRC the research looked like it was originally based in the US cities.

I get that that there may be places where the output of the model doesn't entirely match another place. But when they do a match they then give an explanation of the change. I don't get why they can't do an explanation of the change if there's no match. They must have the data, it's what they used for matching.

Fiona Gregory

@karelbrits @InsertUser That's a great question; you should email the map creator (see Credits under Learn).

Dr. Victoria Grinberg

@fionag11 this is great!

German environmental ministry had something similar a while ago for a set of German cities and it was scary already then - quiet people also don't understand that none of our buildings are made for the new climate. So it's not just that it's going to be hot, we are also going to be in buildings that heat up a ton because they were build for a different climate ...

Ana

Last Boost : je sais pas si ça veut dire que
1 - c'est déjà l'enfer à grenoble et ça peut pas être pire
2 - c'est un super plan de se réfugier là bas pour éviter les effets du réchauffement climatique
(spoiler : c'est surement l'option 1)

la carte dit que dans 60 ans le climat de grenoble sera similaire à celui de crolles (une ville juste à côté) aujourd'hui
Michael Bishop ☕

@fionag11 it's quite concerning. Boise, Idaho could become more like St George, Utah which is warmer. Our agriculture will suffer though we have far less now than the past since the land has been turned to housing. ☹️

Billy Smith

@fionag11

Have you tried Floodmap?

floodmap.net/

Like this one, it's an overlay on OpenStreetMap. :D

Maggie Maybe

@fionag11 it’s wild to me that my current area will have the same climate as Arkansas, where my dad lived when he died.

I live in New England, I don’t want Arkansas climate. I’m glad I’m old. I don’t want to live in the hellscape that we are making

Bart Louwers

@fionag11 This is not so certain as it makes it seem, because according to this most of the Netherlands will be like southern France, but it's also possible that it will get much colder (5 to 15 degrees Celsius) if the AMOC collapses. renewablematter.eu/en/amoc-col

Annelies Kamran

@fionag11 It has the nearest big city NYC (which is coastal) with an analog in Arkansas (which is not). I suspect it's going to be both warmer and wetter than Arkansas is now thanks to proximity to the ocean.

zarel

@fionag11 Happy for Massagno, they don't have to move anywhere it seems

James A Rosen

@fionag11 this is very cool, but I want the opposite. Show me the other cities that in 60 years will look like my city does now

priryo

@fionag11
Alt-text: screenshot of app in action. A map and an arrow pointing from one place to another.
@nedraggett

Sophie

@fionag11 eep! I put in my current city and got this

“Future climate for this location is expected to be unlike anything currently found anywhere on Earth, so there are no climate matches for this location
Fiona Gregory

@Sophie What city?! We need an arrow going to Venus 😱

Sophie

@fionag11 I’m in Baton Rouge. It’s really funny. It doesn’t have this dire of a message for New Orleans. 😂

Rodbotic

@fionag11 Vancouver went nearby north
So a little greener?
Vancouver Island went California.

blake

@fionag11 I’d like to see a reverse version of this map…

Stu

@fionag11 holy crap. Seattle, WA will essentially become Fresno, CA.

Where I grew up in the UK will turn into the region near the French and Spanish border.

rednikki

@fionag11 Hmmm. Looks like they are limiting it to within the same country. The New Zealand climate comparisons are probably underplayed.

Fiona Gregory

@rednikki I've had some results across countries. Maybe what they don't do is across hemispheres.

Nazo

@fionag11 Oh geez. Given that it says my area will be about 5C warmer and it's reaching 38C here some days lately, that means it will be 43C. Anything over 40 is just... I'm pretty sure just in my lifetime it has gotten notably hotter. I don't actually remember it even getting this hot in my younger years.

How are people ok with this? I guess most people just figure they'll die of old age before the world becomes unlivable, so not their problem? I mean screw the future generations, right?

Ghost of Enrico Palazzo 🎃

@fionag11

So Winnipeg will be like, Omaha?

Glad I'm already set with overalls and plaid shirts.

Image of a farmer named Dave Brandt saying "It ain't much, but it's honest work."

Sixtyish year old man in ball cap, plaid shirt and coveralls.
Kierkrampusgaanks regretfully

@fionag11 nearest analog today - bourgogne, france

At least i’ll be dead

David Megginson

@fionag11 Interesting. The biomes don't change for my city (Ottawa) in the extreme case -- still Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forests -- but the temperature will certainly be higher, and the winters, shorter (we'd have the climate of southern Missouri).

Ganga

@fionag11 Fascinating. Adelaide will be desert and Xeric Shrublands 😮

Map showing `Adelaide will be like Woodridge WA in 2080
Jeffrey Rogers 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

@fionag11 Pity it doesn’t mail a copy of the The Grapes of Wrath to everyone who clicks their home city then finds they’ll be a climate migrant……

Colin Rosenthal ❤️🇮🇱❤️

@fionag11 currently it places my city much warmer and further south - but I wonder how that might change if the AMOC really does collapse.

OliverC

@fionag11 Interesting, but I am a bit sceptical that any real accuracy is possible in making forecasts for such a complex system. Does this, for example, take into account the Atlantic conveyor and its potential collapse?

Jon Sullivan

@fionag11 That is a clever way to illustrate the magnitude of the climate changes barrelling down at us.

I tried it for cities in Aotearoa-New Zealand, where I live, and by 2080 all South Island cities will have temperatures like the current climates of North Island cities, Wellington will have temperatures like current Auckland. Northern NZ cities, like Auckland, will have temperatures like Sydney, Australia.

Those are massive shifts for any native species that likes it where they are now.

Duncan Babbage

@fionag11 while the results are significant, I still worry they are not shocking enough.

In particular, this doesn’t warn about the likelihood of frequent extreme weather events, which will probably be at least as impactful as the changes in baseline climates in any particular location.

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