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Τοπάζ Αλαιν Φογτια Αννα Εμιλια

@freakazoid I don't think that'll happen; or if it happens, one would just end up with shit like phrenology again, not with "actually figuring out how something works" except maybe in cases where pure statistics could already solve it...

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Charles U. Farley

@fogti Maybe, but the results we've already had from AlphaFold2 are pretty astonishing.

Τοπάζ Αλαιν Φογτια Αννα Εμιλια

@freakazoid hm don't expect anything generally groundbreaking tho. special cases might still get massively improved, but don't expect systematic improvement.

Charles U. Farley

@fogti Why do you think that? A lot of medicine is about finding a needle in a haystack. A great many of the discoveries so far have been dumb luck. The systems involved are so complicated that humans can barely even spot patterns in them, much less understand how they work. AI can't "understand" biological systems either, but what it can do is to help humans spot patterns.

And that's the difference between AI in medicine and AI in consumer applications: in medicine, AI is typically used to augment humans, not to replace them. As overhyped as they are, even an LLM can work well in that scenario, because it's essentially a search engine. Sure, it might produce a wrong answer, but an expert will confirm it. And it might come up with a right answer a human is unlikely to have thought of. That doesn't have to happen very often to save a lot of lives. And when it comes to drug discovery, the leverage can be huge.

And speaking of drug discovery, I just discovered that the first drug created entirely by AI is entering human trials. cnbc.com/2023/06/29/ai-generat

It seems like that's how AI has always been: you have the overhyped bleeding edge stuff that never lives up to the hype, and then you have the slow boring work that by the time it produces something is almost never called "AI" even though it involves neural networks. For example, who calls speech synthesizers "AI" even though all the current state of the art synthesizers use neural networks from end to end? People barely even paid attention to that research, too. Speech synthesizers just magically got better as far as they were concerned.

@fogti Why do you think that? A lot of medicine is about finding a needle in a haystack. A great many of the discoveries so far have been dumb luck. The systems involved are so complicated that humans can barely even spot patterns in them, much less understand how they work. AI can't "understand" biological systems either, but what it can do is to help humans spot patterns.

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@freakazoid ok that sounds much more reasonable (or at least I understand and agree with this argument)

Charles U. Farley

@fogti I guess I'm not really making a very strong (in the sense of big claims) argument, but I do think large models will have both a direct impact on medicine/molecular biology and an indirect one through the innovation they're spurring in both techniques and hardware.

There have also been some pretty significant advances in molecular biology over the past few years that aren't directly AI related but act as "multipliers", in particular gene sequencing and synthetic biology.

Synthetic biology also has uses far beyond medicine. For example, it seems likely that it will allow us to produce "biofuels" that are chemically identical to fuels that we already use, thus rendering the notion of a "hydrogen economy" (which is fossil fuel industry propaganda IMO) irrelevant.

@fogti I guess I'm not really making a very strong (in the sense of big claims) argument, but I do think large models will have both a direct impact on medicine/molecular biology and an indirect one through the innovation they're spurring in both techniques and hardware.

There have also been some pretty significant advances in molecular biology over the past few years that aren't directly AI related but act as "multipliers", in particular gene sequencing and synthetic biology.

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