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Johannes Ernst

Looking for a prediction market for federal default in a few weeks, can't find any. Where have all the prediction markets gone?

3 comments
Jim Fenton πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦

@J12t Who needs a prediction market when you can just buy foreign securities?

Johannes Ernst

@jimfenton I don't really want to buy anything, I just want to know what the people with the money think about the likelihood of default.

Aswath Rao

@J12t The absence of a prediction market suggests that there is no disagreement on the predicted outcome: MAD guarantees that there wouldn't be a default?

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