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Torbjörn Björkman

@oscarjiminy @brianonbarrington @Wolven I think the paradigmatic shift needed is to not think that throwing mathematics at things necessarily helps.

And to regulate the ways in which risk calculating businesses are allowed to take and spread their risks. Set boundary conditions for their optimization problems such that their solutions generate a sane outcome when agregated.

4 comments
TinDrum

@TorbjornBjorkman @brianonbarrington @Wolven Ok but that brings us back to excluding the tool altogether.

I don’t object to regulation but I doubt that’s likely in the US for eg anytime soon.

Torbjörn Björkman

@oscarjiminy @brianonbarrington @Wolven It could well be that it won't be very soon, agreed. But I still think that path will work sooner than waiting for US financial institutions to spontaneously develop sound thinking about the various risks they take on behalf of all of society.

BrianOnBarrington

@oscarjiminy @TorbjornBjorkman @Wolven That’s the big problem with FICO. Back during the Great Financial Crisis there was a reverse correlation between owners surrendering their homes to mortgage holders and FICO. Deep underwater borrowers with high FICOs were more likely to do the financially rational thing and walk away from their houses… not exactly what the predictive model intended. Now there are so many versions that it’s rather a joke.

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