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Top-level
 I had arguments on BlueSky and Mastodon, where Black folk and Arab/Muslim/Palestinian folk said, "I will never vote for Biden again." and people literally said, "They're wrong! They'll come around!"🤡 I'll never understand the confidence to tell people that they are wrong about their own intent to not vote. 3/N 2 comments
No billionaire caused those Black men to say "I will never vote for Biden again." Biden did that to himself. Harris tried to win them back, and did a decent job! But she own-goaled in October chasing imaginary swing voters. And fundamentally, she could never win all 20 back. Detroit yes. Dearborn no. 5/N |
Gregory's Server
I've shared the math so many times, and people are still confused about it.
Out of 100 Black men voters, ~80 vote Dem and ~20 vote GOP. This has been true for the past ~40 years.
If 20 of the Black Dem men say, "I'm never voting for Biden again!" Then:
* turnout drops by ~20%
* GOP share goes to ~25%
It looks like Trump is gaining and becoming more popular! But in reality, Biden is losing.
Switch Biden out for Harris, and you see things float back towards 80%.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/28/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/aarp-survey-00185978
4/N
I've shared the math so many times, and people are still confused about it.
Out of 100 Black men voters, ~80 vote Dem and ~20 vote GOP. This has been true for the past ~40 years.
If 20 of the Black Dem men say, "I'm never voting for Biden again!" Then:
* turnout drops by ~20%
* GOP share goes to ~25%