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jonny (good kind)

Bsky raises $15m from Blockchain Capital, the VC's press release hints at what they're interested in:

blockchaincapital.com/blog/blu

Bluesky [is] designed to foster a new ecosystem of applications. [...] It is interoperable with existing internet protocols and blockchain-based systems, opening the door for a more connected, less siloed social experience. Since its launch in April 2023, over 100 clients have been built on the AT Protocol, and users have created more than 50,000 custom feeds. And the best part of it all? By building on top of the AT protocol, these developers have access to Bluesky’s 13M users worldwide.

The VC firm sees bsky and their ownership of the relay as being a potentially very lucrative chokepoint, where the users of bluesky are the asset to rent to platform developers who want "access" to them. I've written before how atproto's decentralization is effectively meaningless with the relay system, where it's decentralized in the same sense as google alerts is decentralized - sure you can host your own PDS, but it's only useful because the main relay crawls it, and then either bsky or someone else who (inevitably) pays for access can send it back to you.

edit: here's why i think the relay is a chokepoint and why there will never be a second: neuromatch.social/@jonny/11336

#bsky #bluesky #atproto #ChokepointCapitalism

30 comments
SnoopJ

@jonny a private enterprise is seeking monetization at the likely expense of the nominal goal? :neofox_surprised_pika:

persistentdreamergames

@jonny

I feel like I'm too stupid to understand this fully but it sounds bad.

d@nny "disc@" mc²

@PersistentDreamer @jonny compare to this complementary analysis by @fasterandworse: hci.social/@fasterandworse/113 basically they are justifying the centralization as motivated by """UX""" and it just so happens to be nakedly profit driven

d@nny "disc@" mc²

@PersistentDreamer @jonny @fasterandworse there is an argument that decentralization is a bit of a handicap that i somewhat vibe with but this demonstrates how easily that argument can be misused to serve monopolistic profit motives diametrically opposed to user empowerment or indeed experience

d@nny "disc@" mc²

@PersistentDreamer @jonny @fasterandworse of course it's all extremely funny that they are backed by cryptocurrency here which basically invented being centralized and calling yourself decentralized for affinity fraud through the disaffected who have been harmed/disenfranchised by the financial system (here analogously harmed by social media—sex workers a great example of both). speaking out of both sides of their mouth

d@nny "disc@" mc²

@PersistentDreamer @jonny @fasterandworse unfortunately mastodon decentralization was not enough to save switter by @zemmi so there are actually modes of censorship resistance we can do better at to serve people along with safety features but (even though this is not a uniaxial spectrum) bluesky is of course not going that route

Otte Homan - remember Geordie

@jonny I'm imagining myself sitting in one of these pitch fest meetings and listening to Jack and his techbros trying hard to convince these VCs of all the evil that one can do with those 13M and growing profiles on that shitty protocol and how infinitely much revenue that can generate by charging all the other arse clowns for access ... *shudder*

Kuba Suder • @mackuba.eu on 🦋

@otte_homan @jonny You realize Dorsey is no longer involved in Bluesky at all, right?

Dragoniff

@jonny I think we should make a pool on how long will it take for bluesky to become I-cant-believe-its-not-elon-musks-twitter . My bet is 5 years, being generous...

Marta

@jonny Can you link your previous writing on the relay, please? I really would like to understand that better.

jonny (good kind)

@teclista here's the post i'm referring to: neuromatch.social/@jonny/11055

some more posts on the mirage of decentralization in atproto, i haven't written an "explainer" about how it works, but their docs are increasingly good on that:

- neuromatch.social/@jonny/11189
- neuromatch.social/@jonny/11188
- neuromatch.social/@jonny/11188

to be clear i am not concerned with decentralization for decentralization's sake, as a technological fetish, but the implications on the social, political, and economic structure of the system - specifically its capacity to be turned into an extractive chokepoint by those that control the center (the relay).

@teclista here's the post i'm referring to: neuromatch.social/@jonny/11055

some more posts on the mirage of decentralization in atproto, i haven't written an "explainer" about how it works, but their docs are increasingly good on that:

- neuromatch.social/@jonny/11189
- neuromatch.social/@jonny/11188
- neuromatch.social/@jonny/11188

Jon P

yeah to the extent that the Relay is a central point it's certainly an opportunity for a chokepoint -- and Bluesky has many natural advantages for being the network-wide Relay. It's still an open question as to how quickly partial-network Relays evolve but even to the extent they do they complement the whole-network Relay.

From the Investor's perspective, who knows ... it could be as simple as they didn't get into Farcaster so want a decentralized social network play and this is close enough. The lead seed/Series A funder for my 1990s VC-funded static analysis defect detection company was interested because Purify (runtime defect detection) had turned down funding from them, so they said "well we'll just find somebody else!" Some of their other investments are really horrible so I am not sure what their due diligence looks like. From Bluesky's perspective it could well be this was the path of least resistance to raising quickly on favorable terms. Hard to see this working out well long-term but we shall see.

@jonny @teclista

yeah to the extent that the Relay is a central point it's certainly an opportunity for a chokepoint -- and Bluesky has many natural advantages for being the network-wide Relay. It's still an open question as to how quickly partial-network Relays evolve but even to the extent they do they complement the whole-network Relay.

jonny (good kind)

@jdp23 I don't see how partial relays would be possible in atproto. say some catastrophic event happens where people were dead set on splitting off from bsky the corporation. assume it's truly the top priority and nothing else goes until it happens. assume further still this is some unimaginable proportion of the userbase acting in concert - hell, say 25% want to go all at once. best case scenario for making an independent relay.

you create a new relay, migrate data to new PDSes, get that new relay to crawl the PDSes, so far so good. Now what tho? everyone on the new relay is invisible to everyone on the old relay and vice versa. you are back to 0 appviews and 0 feed generators because they all are listening to the main relay. every single appview and feed generator now needs to choose to listen to the new relay. but why would they? you're still responsible as an appview or feed generator for the content you distribute, and you don't know who this new relay is. that's assuming there's no ill will in such a massive split.

so you set up a new basic set of appviews and feed generators. do they also listen to the main relay? do you mirror the old relay in the new relay? do you let the old relay crawl the pdses too? if so, what was the point of the split? now you need to redesign all the existing appviews and feed generators in flight to deduplicate records, which is possible since they're content addressed, but i would doubt they're designed to handle multiple relays because none have existed before now.

what about DIDs? most of the existing infrastructure is designed to just use PLC, which is just a lookup table that bsky also owns. shoot. but we're saved by magic here, because remember there is no acrimony in this enormous network redefining split! So say bsky the corporation is kind enough to keep letting people register DIDs with PLC. we didn't quite make the clean break we were after, but hey it's only the fundamental ability to exist on the network that we were unable to leave behind, and we'll always be reliant on bsky's goodwill for that until someone makes a DID method that works and then we redesign all the appviews and feed generators again.

So now after all that... we're still invisible to most people on the main relay?! oh right because bsky the corporation also provides the default feeds, and despite the high numbers claimed in the press releases, alternate feeds are actually only sparsely used and as a rule very simple hashtag/account feeds because doing anything else is ridiculously expensive. Bluesky the appview is provided by bluesky the corporation, and that's what's actually fetching and hydrating the feeds for us anyway, so even if the feed generators swap over, we'd still be invisible to everyone still on bsky the app. More magic! bsky the appview chooses to crawl and hydrate our posts. We're pretty far from our initial intention of a clean break, but what choice do we have? Now we're partially viewable, some of the time, on some non-default feeds, and there's no way at all to tell within the interface which those are. All it took was totally redesigning most of the network and an enormous amount of goodwill.

What about labels? What about all the automated content moderation bsky the appview does like scanning images and etc? Who moderates? How? Who's paying for all this anyway? The new relay is bound to be extremely expensive - either it's too small and you don't have the critical mass to make any of the above happen, or it's very large and you run into exactly the same problems of scale that necessitate bsky the corporation to need seed funding and eventually make a revenue model on. Where on fedi people pay for servers and donate to their instance because it's a visible part of their experience with moderators they know and like, now all that labor is diffused among a bunch of anonymous service providers - this is by design! It was supposed to depersonalize the network and make it so everyone is just an interchangeable part that you can shop around between. What keeps people donating to the new PDSes, the new relay, the new appviews, the new feed generators? How would they even know how to do that?Meanwhile the network is continuing to tack on features with some combination of bsky corporation fiat, behind the scenes server magic, and so on, so the best we can hope for is partial compatibility and an always-inferior experience.

And that's just to get to 2 relays. what about 3? Remember how much people complained about how hard it was to find an instance? That's absolutely nothing to the combinatoric complexity of PDS * relay * feed generator * app view. How on earth will anyone know how to follow and talk to their friends? To see your friend's post, if they are not on the main relay, you need to get just the right combination of parameters. Even in this perfect scenario with unlimited resources, attention, goodwill, and organization, we couldn't even manage to make a clean break and still have to be reliant on bsky for basically the entire stack, at least partially.

So maybe some small, closed group could make subnetworks, and that is lovely! i'm glad that tech is out there. There's no such thing as privacy on those networks unless they redesign indigo, but hey it's a start! But that looks nothing like the interoperable paradise that's on the label.

In reality we don't get perfect conditions though, and so we'll get stuck at step one: new relay, zero appviews, zero feed generators, zero visibility, and zero people. Again I don't think alternate relays are possible with atproto -- if they were, then there would be no reason to invest $13 million dollars in bluesky.

#atproto #bsky #bluesky #fediverse

@jdp23 I don't see how partial relays would be possible in atproto. say some catastrophic event happens where people were dead set on splitting off from bsky the corporation. assume it's truly the top priority and nothing else goes until it happens. assume further still this is some unimaginable proportion of the userbase acting in concert - hell, say 25% want to go all at once. best case scenario for making an independent relay.

jonny (good kind)

@jdp23 a lot of the network design only makes sense in the aggregate, if you assume that what people want to receive is amorphous "content" and people want to post to an interchangeable audience. as soon as you start needing to deal with the particularities of "relationships" and socially-conditioned infrastructure, the system falls apart.

argv minus one

@jonny

⚠️ All hands, abandon platform! ⚠️

jonny (good kind)

@argv_minus_one we have only reached the rising stage of the novel!

can

@jonny can people also host their own relay or what would be the Mastodon equivalent?

jonny (good kind)

@can it is possible to host your own data, but no there will be no more relays: neuromatch.social/@jonny/11336

can

@jonny thanks for the in-depth explanation. So I could theoretically run my own relay? But it has the challenges you described in your post? Or what do you mean by “there will be no more relays”?

jonny (good kind)

@can oh it's extremely easy to execute the software of the relay, they write solid code: github.com/bluesky-social/indi

i mean there will not be a meaningful network of secondary relays except for small projects, like multiple relays on a thing that is recognizably "bluesky the app and platform" is not going to happen

can

@jonny ah ok, got it! It’s also telling that today everything seems centralized (of course hard to tell without seeing what Relays and PDS run in the background). Compre that to Mastodon, where there many many servers.

Dan Goodman

@jonny it'll be interesting to see how fast this will all unravel. I was kind of expecting them to be a bit more stealthy for a while longer before showing their hand, but maybe not.

jonny (good kind)

just took a look at about a month of atproto firehose i have just been accumulating, and it looks like it's time for an update to the ol "is it becoming a communication medium yet" and the answer is even more no than before.
1% of accounts receive 72% of interactions (up from 44% last december when the network was a fraction of the size),
1% of posts receive 56% of all interactions, and
almost 90% of posts receive 0 interactions.

the distribution is steep too in the high end of that tail. Scrolling through the default feeds rn on a secondary account following zero people and with zero interactions, posts are averaging in the ~hundreds up to a tens of thousands of interactions. on my actual account where i have interacted with people, i receive the fixed proportion of low-interaction mixins from my network which is like 30-40%. Think about how common seeing a post with hundreds of interactions is tho in the default feeds - 0.01% of posts receive 470 likes, and 0.0001% receive 6300. That's how much the algorithmic amplification makes a monoculture.

I have been taking samples of fedi while developing fetch all replies and backfilling, and the distribution on AP fedi is... not like that... but i haven't taken a systematic sample.

one prior post, i'll find the other later:
neuromatch.social/@jonny/11165

Edit: to be clear, this a month sample of all likes and all accounts that were active in that month. So not all accounts from all time

just took a look at about a month of atproto firehose i have just been accumulating, and it looks like it's time for an update to the ol "is it becoming a communication medium yet" and the answer is even more no than before.
1% of accounts receive 72% of interactions (up from 44% last december when the network was a fraction of the size),
1% of posts receive 56% of all interactions, and
almost 90% of posts receive 0 interactions.

Kevin Riggle

@jonny darling power laws are normal here, this is a good sign

jonny (good kind)

@kevinriggle i would be hard money there are strong preferential attachment effects and the kind of amplification you would expect on AP fedi too. one weird one tho that i think is counterintuitive is that there is like an inverted U shape to preferential attachment-like effects based on instance size. on very small instances, there are only a few people so not much amplification possible, but at like ~dozens to ~hundreds where the local feed is actually usable there are definitely strong amplification effects, especially on glitch instances that show boosts in the local tl, as ours does, but in a way that i think totally rocks. i see what the people around me are talking about every day. it needs some tuning to hide people like me who post too much, but still it's there. but then on the biggest instances where there's basically no instance effect, it inverts and becomes negative where a lot of instances have blocked them in part because of their sheer size. being on a big instance helps with network visibility outwards (for now...) but not "inwards."

So i want to figure out a way to sample from the fedi respectfully and responsibly because i think there would be some super interesting dynamics in the network that i want to try and approximate probabilistically without scraping the whole fedi.

@kevinriggle i would be hard money there are strong preferential attachment effects and the kind of amplification you would expect on AP fedi too. one weird one tho that i think is counterintuitive is that there is like an inverted U shape to preferential attachment-like effects based on instance size. on very small instances, there are only a few people so not much amplification possible, but at like ~dozens to ~hundreds where the local feed is actually usable there are definitely strong amplification...

jonny (good kind)

@kevinriggle when i log back onto my server i'll send you the exponent because like all social systems exhibit power laws, so that's a normal signal, but the power of the power law is extreme

jonny (good kind)

last thought on this for the night: one of the biggest red flags to me is that the default algorithms are conspicuously closed source. that was certainly a subject of the VC funding negotiations.

"do you have room to use the algorithm as a revenue generator if you need to, yes or no" and the answer is yes.

jonny (good kind)

conspicuously, as in there is no mention of this anywhere, the last trace of it in the code is from a database migration a year ago, and literally every other part of it is open source.

Jon P

Not surprising. Starter packs and most feeds have rich-get-richer effects ("quiet posters" is a rare exception). And more generally, a "Twitter alternative" inherently includes stuff about Twitter than many find prolematic as well as the good stuff. @jonny

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