@baldur can't claim to have read it all in detail (will bookmark), but I agree with a lot of what's being said and like your take in considering the nuance of all this.

There seems common threads in people's takes on this. Another prescient concern is the UX trade offs of [the lack of] progressive enhancement.

Would be interested to know if you've looked at 'Marko' and have a take on it as something of a React alternative:
https://markojs.com/