Gregory's Server@drq Good point. It may take some hitherto unknown architectural advances, not just scaling up. But looking at the advances of neural nets over the past decade, I don’t see how it can be dismissed. It might be science fiction, but you know, a lot of science fiction stuff from 1900s and even 1950s is mundane reality now.
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 > it's not anywhere near either a rapture nor apocalypse I’m not saying it is. I’m saying the rate of progress (20 years from a stuggling ZIP code recognizer to GPT-4o), combined with the history of other fields of technology, justifies the concern that if this carries on for another couple decades, we *might* get to that humans-vs.-mice level. We can’t be sure, but it looks just plausible enough to get worried or hyped up. |
@trigrax
> looking at the advances of neural nets over the past decade
As I said, too easily impressed.
Yeah, I mean it's nice/horrible depending on application and context, but it's not anywhere near either a rapture nor apocalypse.