 Every chance I've had to interact with satellite operators in conferences, I've asked them about their plans for dealing with solar storms (I'm particularly worried about Starlink, which requires dozens of maneuvers per day to avoid collisions. What if a large fraction shuts down for a few hours?!) The universal response to my inquiries has been "Don't worry about that, it'll be fine!" I guess we're going to find out very soon. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ 23 comments
  i always check alaska's geophysical institute.. just make sure you clikc on the 'Europe' box bc the page graphic defautls to Alaska @sundogplanets like so many modern possible disaster things I bet the modern satellites just ride through this.  @sundogplanets In 2022 49 starlink satellites deorbited due to a solar storm. There are many more of them up there now... @tony @sundogplanets they were entirely from one batch which were still in transfer orbits. They knew the storm was coming and decided to launch anyway. Doesn't mean a major storm (Carrington?) won't kill a lot of starlinks, but you can't extrapolate from that one incident @sundogplanets @tony@hoyle.me.uk yes I was replying to @Tony :-) I'm not a geomag person but it raised eyebrows with some geomag college friends!  @sundogplanets "don't worry about that, it'll be fine" I usually treat as advice to make alternative arrangements up to, and not excluding, packing our belongings and heading for the hills.  @capnthommo @sundogplanets hill which is coincidentally the exact spot the starlink satellites will drop to! @Luk @sundogplanets I know the exact hill. It has a spacious and solid cave. I'll be ok there.   @sundogplanets  I hope Ukraine is preparing for a surprise, while Musk's treachery can't help the Russians.  βIt cannot be officially supplied here and is not officially supplied here,β Peskov told reporters on Monday. Well that settles it then. Nothing to see here. Move along. Here's a citation for that "dozens of maneuvers per day" stat, by the way: https://www.space.com/starlink-satellite-conjunction-increase-threatens-space-sustainability @azonenberg This is real time data of close approaches: http://astriacss03.tacc.utexas.edu/ui/min.html And yes, the odds are low, but with dozens happening per day, those low odds add up to high odds very quickly @sundogplanets@mastodon.social @azonenberg@ioc.exchange Just a note of support here: back of the envelope says that ten "one in a thousand" chances a day means 98% chance after one year; two dozen one in a thousand chances a day becomes a near certainty after a year. You don't seem to have special knowledge of this topic Andrew but surely you can see the math suggests there's reason for alarm?
@sundogplanets Fascinating. That's incredible to think of how active avoidence needs to be. What could possibliy go wrong if a bunch are disabled and can't manage traffic... |
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@sundogplanets Do you know of any such maps for Europe? What I could find just mumbled about high and mid latitudes which not exactly helpful.