Email or username:

Password:

Forgot your password?
Yogthos's posts Post Back to profile
Yogthos

"Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone -- after slow feedbacks operate -- is about 10°C" arxiv.org/abs/2212.04474

17 Dec 2022 at 13:54 | Open on mas.to
9 comments
Simon Brooke

@yogthos That's not survivable.

I mean, it's been clear for some time that the future was probably non-survivable, but that puts the tin lid on it.

17 Dec 2022 at 15:07 | Open on mastodon.scot
Tally Phoenix

@yogthos I only read the abstract, but why is this paper offering market CO2 pricing and not revolutionary action? Goddamnit scientists, it's capitalism, stupid!

17 Dec 2022 at 15:23 | Open on pdx.social
Yogthos

@tally_phoenix yeah it's depressing to see people peddling capitalist solutions to the problems that capitalism caused.

17 Dec 2022 at 17:04 | Open on mas.to
Ecosaurian 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 :ir:

@yogthos
I know that until very recently IPCC scientists have been very reluctant to publish worst-case scenarios because people just wouldn't accept it.

This figure doesn't surprise me given current political climate, but there are two things I'm wondering based on this.

What's the timescale?
It predicts an eventual rise of 10°C, but that could be over the next 20,000 years - geologically speaking fast, but not something we couldn't fight.

Is it backed up by independent research or is it just the result of crunching data through a model?

I'm not just clutching at straws, the seriousness of what this means for all life on the planet can't be underestimated.

I'm keen to understand if this is a credible extinction prediction of human (and 99% of other lifeforms).

I'm not convinced models take the full impact of reinforcing feedback loops into account. Floods of methane being released as tundra thaws and the effects of ice sheet collapse on glacial melt are Hollywood speed disaster scenarios that could collapse human society in a decade.

We're screwed, but I'm not ready to throw in the towel quite yet. Something on scale of millennia could potentially be adapted to. Just not by 8 billion people. Though of course human factions will probably wipe each other out trying to grab dwindling resources.

@yogthos
I know that until very recently IPCC scientists have been very reluctant to publish worst-case scenarios because people just wouldn't accept it.

This figure doesn't surprise me given current political climate, but there are two things I'm wondering based on this.

What's the timescale?
It predicts an eventual rise of 10°C, but that could be over the next 20,000 years - geologically speaking fast, but not something we couldn't fight.

17 Dec 2022 at 18:07 | Open on neurodifferent.me
Yogthos

@Ecosaurian yeah I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet either, but this does show that things can really get out of hand going forward.

As you note, effects like gigatons of methane being released into atmosphere as the permafrost melts could rapidly speed up the warming.

What's most alarming is that it's only going to take a relatively short time for food chain collapse to occur. A few weeks of hot weather could kill insects and plants which then kills the rest of the ecosystem.

17 Dec 2022 at 18:11 | Open on mas.to
Yogthos

@Ecosaurian if things really start moving towards the worst case projections then we may not have a choice but to start attempting to do geoengineering. Seeding reflective particles in the atmosphere, building sun shades, etc.

And of course these solutions will create their own unintended consequences, but will likely be preferable to simply dying off.

17 Dec 2022 at 18:13 | Open on mas.to
Ecosaurian 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 :ir:

@yogthos
The Chinese have a solar programme underway that's pretty close to a credible solution (or rather as part of a solution).

They're looking to put huge solar arrays into space, probably transmit the energy back to Earth as electron pulses.

With a slight adaptation that could double as a parasol, reducing the amount of solar energy reaching the planet - I'd imagine deploying them to keep the poles shaded would have the maximum gain, though the potential for keeping the tropics habitable with a mobile screen couldn't be ruled out.

As you say though, things could turn really fast, decimating food chain in a single season, or some other unexpected catastrophic event.

All we can do is keep trying to push back the doomsday clock until all of human genius is focused on fixing the mess we made.

@yogthos
The Chinese have a solar programme underway that's pretty close to a credible solution (or rather as part of a solution).

They're looking to put huge solar arrays into space, probably transmit the energy back to Earth as electron pulses.

With a slight adaptation that could double as a parasol, reducing the amount of solar energy reaching the planet - I'd imagine deploying them to keep the poles shaded would have the maximum gain, though the potential for keeping the tropics habitable with...

17 Dec 2022 at 19:56 | Open on neurodifferent.me
Yogthos

@Ecosaurian yeah that's definitely an interesting idea. Both helps cool the planet and generate power in a more sustainable way.

China's been doing a lot of positive stuff lately in this area I find. Reforestation, building high speed rail that replaces need for aviation, investing in nuclear and alternative energy.

In a way we're lucky that much of the industry ended up moving to China because now there's a chance it will be powered sustainably.

17 Dec 2022 at 20:06 | Open on mas.to
Go Up