@cstross i'm sorry but i have to disagree with one point in your prediction: that putin wants to go at war against nato as soon as he deals with ukraine. i would have ignored it, but unfortunately it comes up so often, and it's a dangerous idea --- not because it will happen, but exactly because it will not thus permitting the west to relax when the moment will be exactly the worst to do so.

putin has no interest in attacking eu or nato, and he's playing a very precise game to come as close as possible so as to make you all panic, because as we've all seen in 1938 and in 2008 and 2014 and 2022 panic doesn't make west act agressively but instead to close the eyes and play pacification as long as possible, ideally indefinitely.

from europe putin wants money, and as soon as enough of ukraine is occupied to provide russia with exit to the black sea and to make the rest of ukraine (granted, as little as possible) irrelevant, the european money can be had with the support of hungary, slovakia and some creative help to exteme right, left to create enough pressure to keep the rest occupied.

from usa putin (or his elders further east) want just enough impotent statements to keep eternal america haters in the east and africa mobilized.

a war against nato would actually save nato. putin understands it. there will be no war with nato, even after (if) ukraine is finished. and that's exactly when you'll know you (we) are all doomed --- when there is still no war =(

sorry.